The U.S. Week Ahead (Nov 11-15): Powell To Testify While Retail Updates Eyed

Market participants will face a host of potentially market-moving events in the week ahead, highlighted by Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony, as well as an update on retail sales.

While Philadelphia Fed president Patrick Harker and Fed vice chairs Richard Clarida and Randal Quarles each prepare to flock to their respective podiums in the week ahead, Fed chair Powell will also be busy providing congressional testimony on the central bank’s economic outlook.

Investors have been generally scrutinizing the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) for their stance on monetary policy this past year, after U.S.-China trade tensions, slowing global growth, weak domestic fixed investment and sluggish inflation helped reverse their hawkish agenda – and instead spurred a trio of rate cuts.

For now, the latest decision by the FOMC in late October to slash the target range for the federal funds rate by another 25 basis points to 1.50%-1.75% is widely expected to remain in place, at least through year-end.

On the Fed Calendar:

Monday, November 11

  • Veterans’ Day Holiday

Tuesday, November 12

  • Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida
    • Monetary Policy, Price Stability, and Bond Yields
  • Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker
    • What’s next for the U.S. economy and the Fed? +Q&A

Wednesday, November 13

  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell
    • Testimony before the Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress on the Economic Outlook

Thursday, November 14

  • Fed Vice Chair Randal Quarles
    • Welcoming remarks at the International Association of Insurance Supervisors’ (IAIS) 26th Annual Conference, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
  • Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida
    • The Federal Reserve’s Review of Its Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communication Practices at the Cato Institute’s 37th Annual Monetary Conference, Washington, D.C.
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell
    • Testimony before the House Budget Committee, Washington, D.C. on the Economic Outlook

Recent quotes about the future implied probability the central bank will elect to cut rates by an additional 25 bps at the conclusion to its two-day monetary policy meeting on December 11 were just north of 9.5%, with an overwhelming majority of just over 90% anticipating no change.

Fed chair Powell has said that the committee views “the current stance of policy as likely to remain appropriate as long as incoming information about the economy remains broadly consistent” with its outlook. Overall, he added, “we’ve seen moderate growth, a strong labor market,” and inflation “moving up,” amid an outlook that is “for more of the same”.

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Disclosure: The analysis in this material is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the ...

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