The Market Doesn't Quit

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The market just doesn't quit, as it appears to be challenging new highs for the SPX yet again. A new trendline has been drawn, and the NYSE's new 52-week lows are at harmless levels.
 


The SPX equal-weight index is also at new highs, indicating that the rally has broadened beyond the large-cap leaders. Additionally, the five-day average of total net new highs/lows remains positive.
 


The SPY and QQQ ETFs are back above their 21-day EMAs.
 


The indexes of the two major exchanges have been trading rather nicely as well.
 


The leading technology ETF seems to be a bit weak, lagging the other areas of the market, which means there is a rotation out of this group into the other areas of the market. This is something to note for sure. Let's keep an eye on this. Semiconductors, on the other hand, look much better.
 


It seems as though we got a new short-term uptrend for the broader market on Friday. However, the PMO index has been looking rather odd over the past two weeks or so, as it tried to break higher but then faltered. I can't say that I trust the new uptrend looking like this. I'm viewing it cautiously.
 


The first requirement of a new uptrend is for the major indexes to close above their five-day averages.
 


It is also comforting to see the percentage of stocks above the 50-day moving average reaching decisively higher.
 


The bullish percents also look good, although the move on Friday wasn't quite as strong as I was expecting.
 


The price of this junk bond ETF certainly looks good. This is a bullish indicator.
 


The five-day average of total net new 52-week highs/lows turned upwards.
 


Bottom Line

The market was in rally mode on Friday after a quiet few days. Most of my stocks have been doing well, but despite the unrealized profits and the favorable charts and indicators that I've just shown, I'm on edge and cautious.

Meanwhile, Home Builders appear to be benefiting from expectations of lower mortgage rates.
 


This next chart looks good, but I wish I already owned it.
 


The following chart of the price of gold looks bullish to me, especially as the yellow metal has been moving sideways for a number of months.
 


Outlook Summary

  • The short-term trend is up for stock prices as of Aug. 22.
  • The medium-term trend is neutral for Treasury bond prices.

More By This Author:

Selling Pressure Behind The Scenes
An Unexpected Price Pullback In The Market
Breaking Out To New Highs In A Remarkable Rally

Disclaimer: I am not a registered investment advisor. I am a private investor and blogger. The comments below reflect my view of the market and indicate what I am doing with my own accounts. The ...

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