Technical Market Report For Sept. 13, 2025
The good news is:
- The S&P 500 (SPX) & Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed at new all time highs last Thursday while the Nasdaq composite (OTC) closed at all time highs last Friday.
The Negatives
Too much of a good thing.
The Positives
The first chart covers the last 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of Nasdaq new highs (OTC NH) in green. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month.
OTC NH confirmed the OTC all time high last Friday.
The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the SPX in red and OTC NH in green has been calculated with NYSE data.
The SPX all time high last Thursday was confirmed by NY NH.
The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the SPX in red and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NYSE new lows (NY NL) in blue. NY NL has been plotted on an inverted Y axis so decreasing numbers of new lows move the indicator upward (up is good).
NY NL; NYSE new lows have remained at insignificant levels.
The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the OTC in blue and OTC NL, in brown, has been calculated with Nasdaq data.
Nasdaq new lows also remained at unthreatening levels.
The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of Nasdaq new highs divided by new highs + new lows (OTC HL Ratio), in red. Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn at 10% levels for the indicator; the line is solid at the 50%, neutral level (equal numbers of new highs and new lows).
OTC HL Ratio increased to a strong 82%.
The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the SPX in red and NY HL ratio, in blue, has been calculated with NYSE data.
NY HL Ratio remained pretty much unchanged finishing the week at a very strong 86%.
Seasonality
Next week includes the 5 trading days prior to the 3rd Friday of September during the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle. The tables below show the daily change, on a percentage basis, for that period.
OTC data covers the period from 1963 to 2024 while SPX data runs from 1953 to 2024. There are summaries for both the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined. Prior to 1953 the market traded 6 days a week so that data has been ignored.
Seasonality for the coming week has been positive by all measures.
Report for the week before the 3rd Friday of September.
The number following the year is the position in the Presidential Cycle.
Daily returns from Monday through 3rd Friday.
OTC Presidential Year 1 (PY1)
Year Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Totals
1965-1 0.51% 0.32% -0.19% 0.38% 0.70% 1.72%
1969-1 0.25% 1.42% 0.67% 0.26% 0.18% 2.79%
1973-1 0.19% 0.03% 1.51% 0.79% 0.64% 3.16%
1977-1 -0.31% -0.14% 0.15% 0.36% -0.23% -0.17%
1981-1 -0.10% -0.03% -0.92% -1.12% -0.78% -2.95%
Avg 0.11% 0.32% 0.25% 0.13% 0.10% 0.91%
1985-1 -0.64% -1.51% -0.01% 0.91% 0.27% -0.98%
1989-1 -0.19% 0.31% -0.01% -0.65% -0.26% -0.79%
1993-1 -0.54% -1.04% 0.94% 0.03% 0.04% -0.55%
1997-1 -0.87% 2.06% -0.13% 0.22% 0.61% 1.90%
2001-1 5.35% 0.15% -2.50% -0.23% 2.61% 5.38%
Avg 0.62% -0.01% -0.34% 0.06% 0.65% 0.99%
2005-1 0.34% -0.51% -1.03% -0.15% 0.66% -0.69%
2009-1 0.52% 0.52% 1.45% -0.30% 0.29% 2.48%
2013-1 -0.12% 0.75% 1.01% 0.15% -0.39% 1.41%
2017-1 1.13% 0.34% 0.09% -0.48% 0.30% 1.38%
2021-1 -0.07% -0.45% 0.82% 0.13% -0.91% -0.47%
Avg 0.36% 0.13% 0.47% -0.13% -0.01% 0.82%
OTC summary for PY1 1965 - 2021
Avg 0.36% 0.15% 0.12% 0.02% 0.25% 0.91%
Win% 47% 60% 53% 60% 67% 53%
OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2024
Avg 0.09% 0.11% 0.04% 0.21% 0.18% 0.63%
Win% 45% 56% 61% 65% 61% 60%
SPX PY1
Year Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Totals
1953-1 -1.86% 0.84% 0.48% 0.26% -0.52% -0.80%
1957-1 -0.49% 0.13% 0.11% -0.65% -1.60% -2.49%
1961-1 -0.88% 1.01% 0.07% -0.71% 0.18% -0.33%
1965-1 0.29% -0.39% 0.55% 0.56% 0.03% 1.04%
1969-1 0.55% 0.08% -0.34% 0.29% 0.31% 0.89%
1973-1 -0.28% -0.36% 2.03% 0.83% 0.41% 2.63%
1977-1 -0.35% 0.06% 0.48% 0.26% -0.33% 0.12%
1981-1 -0.78% -0.74% -0.75% -1.45% -0.76% -4.48%
Avg -0.11% -0.27% 0.39% 0.10% -0.07% 0.04%
1985-1 -0.02% -0.83% 0.19% 0.92% -0.73% -0.46%
1989-1 -0.32% 0.30% -0.93% -0.67% 0.55% -1.06%
1993-1 0.07% -0.47% 0.37% -0.47% -0.13% -0.62%
1997-1 -0.45% 2.81% -0.28% 0.45% 0.34% 2.88%
2001-1 3.90% 0.88% -0.52% 1.15% 2.19% 7.60%
Avg 0.64% 0.54% -0.23% 0.28% 0.44% 1.67%
2005-1 -0.07% -0.75% -0.33% 0.05% 0.83% -0.28%
2009-1 0.63% 0.31% 1.53% -0.31% 0.26% 2.44%
2013-1 0.57% 0.42% 1.22% -0.18% -0.72% 1.30%
2017-1 1.08% 0.34% 0.08% -0.11% 0.18% 1.57%
2021-1 0.23% -0.57% 0.85% -0.16% -0.91% -0.57%
Avg 0.49% -0.05% 0.67% -0.14% -0.07% 0.89%
SPX summary for PY1 1953 - 2021
Avg 0.10% 0.17% 0.27% 0.00% -0.02% 0.52%
Win% 44% 61% 67% 50% 56% 50%
SPX summary for all years 1953 - 2024
Avg 0.13% 0.05% 0.10% 0.17% 0.06% 0.51%
Win% 54% 56% 65% 56% 51% 60%
Money supply (M2) and Interest Rates
The following chart was supplied by Gordon Harms.
The chart, made with FastTrack, covers the past 3 years showing the M2 money supply in red. This chart is more granular than previous M2 charts and shows money supply has been increasing since October of 2023.
Treasury rates at their close last Friday and their changes from last month:
2yr yield 3.562% down from 3.763%
5yr yield 3.636% down from 3.844%
10yr yield 4.070% down from 4.321%
30yr yield 4.683% down from 4.920%
The next chart covers the past 2 years showing a relative comparison of US treasuries. 2 year in red, 5 year in grey, 10 year in green and 30 year in purple.
Conclusion
We are seeing all time highs with strong breadth; what could go wrong?
The strongest sectors last week were Precious Metals (for the 3rd week) and Telecomm (for the 2nd week) while the weakest were Transportation and Leisure.
I expect the major averages to be higher on Friday September 19 than they were on Friday September 12.
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