Technical Market Report For November 15, 2025
The good news is:
- A bottom should be easy to identify.
The Negatives
The first chart covers the last 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of Nasdaq new highs (OTC NH) in green. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month.
OTC NH continued to decline.
The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the S&P 500 in red, and OTC NH in green has been calculated with NYSE data.
NY NH rallied for a few days last week before continuing its decline.
The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the SPX in red and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NYSE new lows (NY NL) in blue. NY NL has been plotted on an inverted Y axis so decreasing numbers of new lows move the indicator upward (up is good).
NY NL rallied for a few days last week then turned back downward.
The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the OTC in blue and OTC NL, in brown, has been calculated with Nasdaq data.
OTC NL also had a brief rally last week.
The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of Nasdaq new highs divided by new highs + new lows (OTC HL Ratio), in red. Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn at 10% levels for the indicator; the line is solid at the 50%, neutral level (equal numbers of new highs and new lows).
OTC HL Ratio went positive for 1 day last week.
The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the SPX in red and NY HL ratio, in blue, has been calculated with NYSE data.
NY HL Ratio went positive for a few days last week, but ended the week in negative territory.
The Positives
Some of the breadth indicators teased us for a few days last week.
Seasonality
Next week includes the 5 trading days prior to the 3rd Friday of November during the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle. The tables below show the daily change, on a percentage basis, for that period.
OTC data covers the period from 1963 to 2024 while SPX data runs from 1953 to 2024. There are summaries for both the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined. Pror to 1953 the market traded 6 days a week so that data has been ignored.
Seasonality for the coming week has been modestly positive by all measures.
Report for the week before the 3rd Friday of November.
The number following the year is the position in the Presidential Cycle.
Daily returns from Monday through 3rd Friday.
OTC Presidential Year 1 (PY1)
Year Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Totals
1965-1 0.25% 0.27% -0.11% 0.14% -0.22% 0.35%
1969-1 -0.07% 0.05% -0.23% 0.26% -0.88% -0.88%
1973-1 -0.65% -0.32% -2.64% -0.34% -0.25% -4.20%
1977-1 0.04% 0.53% 0.04% 0.30% 0.35% 1.26%
1981-1 -1.50% 0.26% -0.04% -0.14% 0.65% -0.77%
Avg -0.39% 0.16% -0.60% 0.04% -0.07% -0.85%
1985-1 0.76% 0.69% -0.18% 0.45% 0.31% 2.04%
1989-1 -0.05% -0.42% 0.40% -0.12% 0.32% 0.12%
1993-1 -0.88% -0.10% -1.21% -1.05% -0.37% -3.61%
1997-1 1.93% -0.85% 0.05% 1.59% -0.36% 2.36%
2001-1 0.64% 2.82% 0.59% -0.14% -0.10% 3.81%
Avg 0.48% 0.43% -0.07% 0.14% -0.04% 0.94%
2005-1 -0.07% -0.65% 0.05% 1.49% 0.30% 1.12%
2009-1 1.38% 0.27% -0.48% -1.66% -0.50% -0.99%
2013-1 0.01% 0.00% 1.16% 0.18% 0.33% 1.70%
2017-1 0.10% -0.29% -0.47% 1.29% -0.15% 0.48%
2021-1 -0.04% 0.76% -0.33% 0.45% 0.40% 1.24%
Avg 0.28% 0.02% -0.01% 0.35% 0.08% 0.71%
OTC summary for PY1 1965 - 2021
Avg 0.12% 0.20% -0.23% 0.18% -0.01% 0.27%
Win% 53% 60% 40% 60% 47% 67%
OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2024
Avg -0.16% 0.18% -0.12% 0.08% 0.01% 0.00%
Win% 44% 56% 52% 56% 55% 58%
SPX PY1
Year Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Totals
1953-1 -0.65% -0.53% 0.16% 0.45% 0.16% -0.40%
1957-1 -0.02% -1.44% -0.13% -0.28% 2.36% 0.49%
1961-1 0.28% 0.55% 0.01% -0.07% 0.00% 0.77%
1965-1 0.09% -0.24% 0.21% -0.41% 0.02% -0.33%
1969-1 -0.68% -0.02% -0.51% -1.03% -0.62% -2.86%
1973-1 -0.82% -0.08% -1.83% -0.02% 1.42% -1.33%
1977-1 -0.69% 0.64% -0.50% -0.30% 0.18% -0.67%
1981-1 -1.18% 0.76% -0.73% 0.37% 0.83% 0.05%
Avg -0.65% 0.21% -0.67% -0.28% 0.36% -1.03%
1985-1 1.84% 0.41% -0.49% 0.99% -0.48% 2.27%
1989-1 0.13% -0.46% 0.75% 0.01% 0.30% 0.74%
1993-1 -0.35% 0.64% -0.41% -0.26% -0.22% -0.60%
1997-1 1.92% -0.84% 0.68% 1.52% 0.43% 3.71%
2001-1 -0.18% 1.86% 0.19% 0.09% -0.31% 1.64%
Avg 0.67% 0.32% 0.14% 0.47% -0.06% 1.55%
2005-1 -0.08% -0.39% 0.18% 0.94% 0.44% 1.10%
2009-1 1.45% 0.08% -0.03% -1.34% -0.32% -0.17%
2013-1 0.07% -0.24% 0.81% 0.48% 0.42% 1.55%
2017-1 0.10% -0.23% -0.55% 0.82% -0.26% -0.13%
2021-1 0.00% 0.39% -0.26% 0.34% -0.14% 0.32%
Avg 0.31% -0.08% 0.03% 0.25% 0.03% 0.53%
SPX summary for PY1 1953 - 2021
Avg 0.07% 0.05% -0.14% 0.13% 0.25% 0.34%
Win% 44% 44% 44% 56% 59% 56%
SPX summary for all years 1953 - 2024
Avg -0.02% 0.04% -0.07% -0.03% 0.11% 0.03%
Win% 46% 47% 58% 53% 61% 53%
Money supply (M2) and Interest Rates
The following charts was supplied by Gordon Harms.
The chart was made with FastTrack and covers the past 3 years showing the M2 money supply in red. This chart is more granular than previous M2 charts and shows money supply has been increasing since October of 2023.
Treasury rates at their close last Friday and their changes from last month:
2yr yield 3.612% up from 3.472%
5yr yield 3.734% up from 3.598%
10yr yield 4.147% up from 4.014%
30yr yield 4.751% up from 4.609%
The next chart covers the past 2 years showing a relative comparison of US treasuries: 2 year in red, 5 year in grey, 10 year in green and 30 year in purple.
Conclusion
New lows will disappear when a bottom has been reached and that has NOT happened.
The strongest sectors last week were Energy (for the 4th week) and Health care the weakest were Internet and Electronics (both for the 2nd week in a row).
I expect the major averages to be lower on Friday November 21 than they were on Friday November 14.
Last week the Dow Jones Industrial Average and SPX were up while the OTC and Russell 2000 were down; so I am calling last week's negative forecast a tie.
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