Technical Market Report For July 19, 2025
The good news is:
- The S&P 500 (SPX) closed at an all time high last Thursday and Nasdaq composite (OTC) closed at an all time high last Friday.
The Negatives
The first chart covers the last 6 months showing the SPX in red and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NYSE new highs (NY NH) in green. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month.
NY NH failed to confirm the new high for the SPX last Thursday.
The next chart is similar to the 1st one except it shows the OTC in blue and OTC NH in green has been calculated with Nasdaq data.
OTC NH, failed to confirm the OTC all time high last Friday.
The Positives
The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of Nasdaq new highs divided by new highs + new lows (OTC HL Ratio), in red. Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn at 10% levels for the indicator; the line is solid at the 50%, neutral level (equal numbers of new highs and new lows).
OTC HL Ratio finished the week at a comfortable 77%.
The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the SPX in red and NY HL ratio, in blue, has been calculated with NYSE data.
NY HL Ratio fell last week, but ended the week at a comfortable 75%.
The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the SPX in red and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NYSE new lows (NY NL) in blue. NY NL has been plotted on an inverted Y axis so decreasing numbers of new lows move the indicator upward (up is good).
NY NL; NYSE new lows remained at non-threatening levels last week.
The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the OTC in blue and OTC NL, in brown, has been calculated with Nasdaq data.
OTC NL also remained at non threatening levels.
Seasonality
Next week includes the 5 trading days prior to the 4th Friday of July during the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle. The tables below show the daily change, on a percentage basis, for that period.
OTC data covers the period from 1963 to 2024 while SPX data runs from 1953 to 2024. There are summaries for both the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined. Prior to 1953 the market traded 6 days a week so that data has been ignored.
Seasonality for the coming week has been modestly positive by all measures.
Report for the week before the 4th Friday of July.
The number following the year is the position in the Presidential Cycle.
Daily returns from Monday through the 4th Friday.
OTC Presidential Year 1 (PY1)
Year Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Totals
1965-1 -1.67% 0.12% -1.20% -0.46% -0.42% -3.63%
1969-1 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1973-1 0.07% 0.50% 0.83% -0.02% 0.17% 1.55%
1977-1 0.59% 0.36% 0.05% 0.26% 0.40% 1.67%
1981-1 0.68% -0.24% 0.02% 0.52% 0.76% 1.74%
Avg -0.08% 0.19% -0.08% 0.08% 0.23% 0.33%
1985-1 -0.30% -0.20% -0.82% 0.24% 0.06% -1.02%
1989-1 -0.74% 0.11% 0.59% 0.75% 0.08% 0.79%
1993-1 -0.56% 0.87% -0.26% -0.65% 0.68% 0.08%
1997-1 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
2001-1 -2.01% -1.47% 1.28% 1.95% 0.30% 0.04%
Avg -0.90% -0.17% 0.20% 0.57% 0.28% -0.03%
2005-1 -0.55% 1.32% 0.71% -0.46% 0.05% 1.07%
2009-1 0.10% 0.39% -0.39% 0.84% -0.29% 0.64%
2013-1 0.36% -0.59% 0.01% 0.71% 0.22% 0.71%
2017-1 0.36% 0.02% 0.16% -0.63% -0.12% -0.20%
2021-1 -1.06% 1.57% 0.92% 0.36% 1.04% 2.83%
Avg -0.16% 0.54% 0.28% 0.17% 0.18% 1.01%
OTC summary for PY1 1965 - 2021
Avg -0.36% 0.21% 0.15% 0.26% 0.23% 0.48%
Win% 46% 69% 69% 62% 77% 77%
OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2024
Avg -0.22% -0.01% 0.16% 0.05% 0.06% 0.04%
Win% 47% 57% 58% 60% 62% 57%
SPX PY1
Year Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Totals
1953-1 -0.53% -0.25% 0.12% 0.17% 0.00% -0.49%
1957-1 -0.23% 0.19% 0.10% 0.00% -0.33% -0.27%
1961-1 0.02% 0.55% 0.94% 1.17% 0.15% 2.83%
1965-1 -0.07% -1.26% -0.57% -0.26% 0.26% -1.90%
1969-1 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1973-1 0.35% 0.58% 1.39% 0.19% -0.24% 2.27%
1977-1 0.77% 0.83% -0.06% -0.14% 0.08% 1.48%
1981-1 1.12% -0.59% 0.02% 0.66% 0.70% 1.91%
Avg 0.54% -0.11% 0.19% 0.11% 0.20% 0.94%
1985-1 -0.40% -0.93% -0.50% 0.25% 0.18% -1.40%
1989-1 -0.66% 0.06% 1.25% 1.17% 0.05% 1.86%
1993-1 0.06% 0.29% -0.03% -0.60% 0.58% 0.31%
1997-1 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
2001-1 -1.64% -1.63% 1.61% 1.04% 0.24% -0.37%
Avg -0.66% -0.55% 0.58% 0.47% 0.26% 0.10%
2005-1 -0.55% 0.67% 0.48% -0.66% 0.54% 0.48%
2009-1 0.30% -0.26% -0.46% 1.19% 0.07% 0.84%
2013-1 0.20% -0.19% -0.38% 0.26% 0.08% -0.02%
2017-1 -0.11% 0.29% 0.03% -0.10% -0.13% -0.02%
2021-1 -1.59% 1.52% 0.82% 0.20% 1.01% 1.97%
Avg -0.35% 0.41% 0.10% 0.18% 0.32% 0.65%
SPX summary for PY1 1953 - 2021
Avg -0.18% -0.01% 0.30% 0.30% 0.22% 0.59%
Win% 44% 56% 63% 67% 80% 56%
SPX summary for all years 1953 - 2024
Avg -0.16% 0.00% 0.30% 0.14% 0.05% 0.32%
Win% 37% 55% 63% 59% 62% 60%
Money supply (M2) and Interest Rates
The following chart was supplied by Gordon Harms.
The chart, made with FastTrack, covers the past 2 years showing the SPX in red and M2 money supply in green.
Money supply has remained constant for several months.
Treasury rates at their close last Friday and their changes from last month:
2yr yield 3.880% down from 3.958%
5yr yield 3.952% down from 4.010%
10yr yield 4.423% up from 4.406%
30yr yield 4.986% up from 4.903%
Conclusion
The OTC and SPX both closed at new highs last week. Breadth weakened a little. Seasonality for the coming week is modestly positive.
The strongest sectors last week were Utilities and Internet while the weakest were Health and Energy (back down from the top last week).
I expect the major averages to be higher on Friday July 25 than they were on Friday July 18.
Last week the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down slightly while the other major averages were up. So, I am calling last week's positive forecast a tie.
More By This Author:
Technical Market Report For July 12, 2025Technical Market Report For July 5, 2025
Technical Market Report For June 28, 2025
Comments
