A new short-term uptrend started on Sept.4.

August was a really difficult month for trading. Would the market break higher or lower? I didn't know.

The medium-term trend also looks like it has turned higher, although it is too early to know for sure.

Here is more evidence that the medium-term has turned up. The summation is pointing higher and is above the zero-level.

My emotions tell me to sell everything, short the market and then hide in the basement. But the charts say otherwise and I am following the charts because my emotions are a terrible trading tool. For now, the market, or at least the big institutional stocks, appear to be heading upwards.

Let's scroll through some longer-term charts. The Semiconductors are leaders once again. Very bullish for the general market.

Junk bonds are unstoppable. Bullish.

The ECRI Index is very weak and pointing lower. Bearish. But as long as it remains above the magic -5 level then I think stock prices have the ability to defy gravity. Also, keep in mind that this index trails the market.

Here is a look at a monthly chart with a traditional stochastic. Not every turn lower for the stochastic results in a decline for the index. But I would still rather be buying when the indicator is at the bottom of the range rather than at the top.

Bond yields have been moving lower since last November and there isn't much in this chart below to indicate that the trend is ready to reverse anytime soon.

Here is a look at the spreadsheet I use to track Sector Strength. Not too many surprises.

Bonds are outperforming stocks and small caps are very weak. Not the best alignment for a bull market but for now the bull continues.

The dividend-payers continue to lead similar to their bond market friends. Technology and Consumer are the only other areas of real strength. Again, not the best alignment for a bull.

I am a little surprised to see so much strength among the foreign ETFs.
 

Outlook Summary

The long-term outlook is cautious as of May-18. 

The medium-term trend is up as of Sep-04.  (Still looking for confirmation.) 
The short-term trend is up as of Sep-04. 
The medium-term trend for the price of bonds is up as of Nov-16 (prices higher, yields lower). 

Investing Themes:

Payment Processors, Gold Miners, Solar, Software, Home Building, Defense

Strategy During a Bull Market:

• Buy large-cap stocks and ETFs at the lows of the medium or short-term market trends
• Buy small-cap growth stocks on breaks to new highs in the early stages of market trends
• Reduce buying when the market trend is at the top of the range
• Take partial profits when the market uptrend starts to struggle at the highs
• The cardinal rule is never invest based on personal politics because the stock market can do well regardless of which political party is in control