New All-Time Highs In A Short-Term Uptrend

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The SPX hit a new all-time high on Friday. You don't see too many charts of the index looking better than this. Also, the number of new 52-week lows has remained at harmless levels. This is a bullish indicator.
 


The SPX equal-weight didn't do as well as the SPX, meaning that the broad market was a bit weaker than the largest of the large-cap stocks. Still, this has been looking really good. A new all-time high is probably around the corner. Net highs and lows have remained positive as well.
 


The most important of the charts, which shows the broad technology and semiconductor ETFs, illustrates how both funds hit new highs and have continued to respect their 21-day averages. This is the most important chart because if these two ETFs hit new highs, then most of the indexes of other areas of the market will likely follow higher as well. This chart seems to be a green light to own stocks. This is another bullish indicator.
 


The short-term trend for stock prices has moved higher, and the current uptrend started around Oct. 21, as shown by the chart of the PMO index below. I like to make my stock purchases near the beginning of these short-term uptrends in order to improve my chances of buying at a good price.
 


This next chart shows how the two major indexes started trading above their five-day averages about 6 trading sessions ago, and that is the first element needed in a new short-term uptrend.
 


Now, here is something a bit negative. The bullish percents did not start to move higher until Friday. This makes me question the broad strength of the uptrend. This is something to keep in mind.
 


The summations have looked rather decent. All three have been curling upwards, as we would like to see in a new uptrend, although the Nasdaq's move wasn't impressive.
 


The buy-write indexes looked really good in recent trading. This is another bullish indicator.
 


The price of this junk bond ETF has continued to move higher, which may provide some confidence to owning stocks.
 


Treasury yields have continued to point marginally lower, which would favor higher stock prices -- most of the time, that is, but not always.
 


As shown in the first couple of charts, the number of new 52-week lows looked really good for NYSE stocks over the last week. If you are buying stocks, this is what you want the NYSE new lows to look like. The Nasdaq's level of new lows seems to be a bit elevated, but that has been the case for the entire three years of this bull market.
 


Bottom Line

The stock market couldn't have looked better on Friday, so obviously, I can't do much complaining. There is a lot to like in these charts. We all know, however, that stock prices can't go straight up forever, and at some point, prices will pull back. So we need to be ready. 

In order to be ready for a pullback in prices, I like to start raising cash by trimming from my holdings as the PMO index gets close to the top of its range, which I expect to happen sometime over the next few weeks. At the moment, I am fully invested.

Meanwhile, the longer-term market indicator is shown below, and it has continued to look good.
 


Commodity prices have continued to approach the upper price range, as shown below. If commodity prices break higher out of this range, there is no way the Federal Reserve could continue to lower rates, and that would not be good news for a fully valued stock market, as we have now.
 


Outlook Summary

  • The short-term trend is up for stock prices as of Oct. 21.
  • The medium-term trend is neutral for Treasury bond prices.

More By This Author:

The Market Struggle Following The Uptrend
The Market Derailed
A Few Too Many Lows

Disclaimer: I am not a registered investment advisor. I am a private investor and blogger. The comments below reflect my view of the market and indicate what I am doing with my own accounts. The ...

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