Bond yields from the New York Fed, chart by Mish.

Chart Notes and Synopsis

• On the horizontal axis, F stands for Effective Fed Funds Rate (EFFR). 
• The 3 and 6 represent months. I extrapolated rates between years equally.
• A few days ago the 10-year and 30-year bonds inverted and remain inverted.
• The EFFR is 3.83 percent. It is inverted with every bond of 5-years duration and longer.
• The Fed will likely hike rates next week by 50 basis points. That would put the EFFR at 4.33% and invert the EFFR with every bond of 2 years duration and longer.
• The 20-year bond trades little and is an anomaly best ignored, effectively making nearly the entire chart inverted. 

Treasury Yields May 24 to December 9, 2022

Significant Inversions

• The highly watched 2-10 inversion is (3.57-4.33) 76 basis points. 
• The 1-year note is inverted with the 10-year note by (3.57-4.72) 115 basis points.

Yellow highlights represent a period that the treasury did not issue 30-year bonds.

These are some of the biggest inversions in history. A recession is coming, assuming it's not already here.

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