This morning’s SPX futures rose to 5341.86, above the Cycle Bottom where it had closed yesterday. Futures are easing lower. Should the SPX open beneath the Cycle Bottom at 5270.00, the decline which started yesterday may continue. Corporate insiders are buying shares ahead of the buyback blackout ending. However, they may be assuming the resumption of the uptrend. As you can see, the SPX is well beneath the long-term uptrend, the 1987 trendline. The Cycles Model suggests that, once the decline takes hold, it may continue for the next two months. The green Master Cycle may have ended on Monday in a truncated fashion, suggesting the turn may have occurred prematurely. There may be a slight risk of the SPX running up to the trendline by Monday.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 5350.00. Long gamma may begin at a highly contested 5400.00 while short gamma strengthened beneath 5300.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures have bounced back from yesterday’s rout, following positive signals from initial US-Japan trade talks after President Donald Trump said there was “big progress” to strike a deal fueling optimism over trade negotiations. Still, as of 8:00am they are well off their highs after DJIA heavyweight member UnitedHealthcare plunged 20% after slashing outlook on care costs and after President Donald Trump berated Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for being slow to cut interest rates; S&P 500 futures rising 0.4% having earlier risen as much as 1.2%, while Nasdaq futures gained 0.8% with Mag7 names mostly higher as US-listed shares of TSMC rose 3.8% in premarket after forecasting sales for the second quarter that topped estimates. European stock fell and Asian markets rose. Volatility is becoming less extreme as the VIX retreated to around 30, down from last week’s peak of about 52. The dollar edged higher while the yen drops, lagging G-10 currencies. Gold dipped from record highs but was still trading above $3300 while oil rose for a second day after the US vowed to reduce Iran’s energy exports to zero.”

VIX futures declined to 30.22, but recovered back above the Cycle Top support at 31.08.  The VIX remains on a buy signal. The Cycles Model anticipates a series of panic-up days over the next three weeks that may break records.

TNX is declining further this morning and may be hours away from a Master Cycle low. The potential target may be the Intermediate and mid-Cycle support at 42.19. The Cycles Model suggests a very strong reversal on Monday, followed by rising rates through mid-May.

ZeroHedge remarks, “As US equity markets continue to fall – and recession calls mount from establishment elites, despite strong ‘hard’ data’ – President Trump lashed out at Fed Chair Powell via TruthSocial this morning exclaiming that Powell’s termination from his position can’t come quickly enough, arguing that the US central bank should have lowered interest rates already this year, and in any case should do so now.

The ECB is expected to cut interest rates for the 7th time, and yet, “Too Late” Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always TOO LATE AND WRONG, yesterday issued a report which was another, and typical, complete “mess!”

Oil prices are down, groceries (even eggs!) are down, and the USA is getting RICH ON TARIFFS. 

Too Late should have lowered Interest Rates, like the ECB, long ago, but he should certainly lower them now. 

Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!”

USD futures may be consolidating near the Cycle Bottom at 99.23 in order to make the final probe beneath it. A potential target may reside between 96.00 and 98.00. The Cycles Model suggest a strong turning point on Monday, followed by a panic rally by mid-week.

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