Gold Steady As Rate Hikes Offset Ukraine Worries

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Gold prices were flat on Wednesday as Federal Reserve officials’ call for higher rates hikes countered the impact of the Ukraine crisis. Another factor against the bullion is the higher Treasury yields, which raised the opportunity cost of owning the non-interest-bearing metal.

Spot gold is currently trading at $1,919.79 per ounce as of 0745 GMT.

The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields jumped above 2.3% for the first time since May 2019. It happed after Fed Chair Jerome Power indicated that they would raise interest rates by higher-than-usual amounts if necessary. Yesterday, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard repeated his call for a rate hike above 3%. He said the central bank needs to move aggressively to keep inflation under control. The market is already pricing in a 72.2% probability of a 50-basis-point increase in the Fed’s May meeting.

Meanwhile, the West plans to announce more sanctions against Russia amid the worsening humanitarian crisis in Ukraine. The U.S. is already preparing measures against more than 300 members of the State Duma. The West will also review Russia’s membership into the Group of Twenty.

Tiger Brokers’ chief strategy officer Michael McCarthy commented that the potential for higher interest rates globally weighs on gold. But the geopolitical conflict in Ukraine remains supportive of the yellow metal. He also noted that the optimism around a ceasefire agreement is fading.

On the technical front, Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao predicted spot gold to slide down to $1,891-$1,903 per ounce. He explained that the downtrend from the March 8 high of $2,069.89 appears to have continued.

DailyFX senior strategist Christopher Vecchio added that gold’s bearish trend continued in recent days. Prices are below their 5-, 8-, 13- and 21-day EMA envelope and the daily MACD continues to go down. Also, the daily Slow Stochastics are on the brink of entering oversold territory. Vecchio predicted that if gold fails to remain within the $1,916-$1,923 range, it could drop to $1,895.07 in the near term. He also mentioned that the IG Client Sentiment Index indicates a bearish bias for the bullion.

FXStreet senior analyst Dhwani Mehta added that gold price is defending the critical upward-sloping 200-Simple Moving Average at $1,914 on the four-hour chart. She said the bullion would likely test a resistance at $1,900 if it falls below the 200-DMA at $1,914. On the upside, Mehta sees resistance at $1,941 as gold bulls set their eyes on the horizontal 100-SMA at $1,955.

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