Finally! True Normalization In Market Behavior

“Finally I’m becoming stupider no more.” – Paul Erdos

This is perhaps one of the most exciting periods in recent history for the stock market.

Since the Federal Reserve embarked on Quantitative Easing 3, we have been living in an anomaly. The stock market made remarkable gains, led by all the wrong stuff. Because of central bank suppression of interest rates, those parts of the marketplace which tended to be most defensive (Utilities, Staples, Healthcare, and Treasuries) ended up being the best way to play offense. There is a direct link between yielding investments, volatility, and animal spirits. Quite simply, if you’re excited for the stock market, you historically wouldn’t play that by being in the most boring parts of the marketplace. Instead, you would favor cyclical sectors, and emerging markets. This whole concept got flipped on its head in the last market cycle.

For anyone that has relied on historical relationships, this has been frustrating and wildly underappreciated by both the media and the average investor. In each of our award winning papers, we show that historically, those defense plays (notably Utilities and Treasuries) have tended to be leading indicators of volatility (click here to download the papers). Those defense plays ended up not being leading indicators of volatility, but leaders in a no volatility world. That low volatility environment was very favorable for beta and specifically mega-caps.

It is clear now that things are changing and maybe, just maybe, we are on the verge of true normalization in market behavior where up capture is driven by cyclicals and emerging markets. It is ironic that many of the best performers in an election year actually end up being outside of our walls. Financials are starting to lead, as Utilities begin to break down. All it took was one of the most historic six week drops in the VIX ever to finally create a flip in market leadership.

Visibly, anyone paying attention to market behavior sees this. Whereas emerging markets, when they opened the morning session weak would continue to be weak in the past, now buyers are stepping in causing many broad based overseas ETFs to outperform by end of day. On strong dollar days driven by improving economic data and expectations of Fed hikes, cyclicals power through. Risk-on is looking more and more risk-on. Risk-off then becomes exceedingly risky for asset allocators who have tilted their portfolios towards yield. Bonds and dividend plays from a buy and hold perspective may be in a world of hurt if this trend continues.

Finally, historical relationships are making a comeback. And for anyone relying on them, that means the future path of their strategies looks ever more exciting.

*Beta Rotation Index, +9.57% Year to Date thru 8/5/2016, remains in offense mode (click here for why this matters)

*Pension Partners Tactical Exposure Model +12.58% Year to Date thru 8/5/2016

Disclosure:

This writing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation regarding any securities transaction, or as an ...

more
How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.
Or Sign in with
Chee Hin Teh 8 years ago Member's comment

Well said. Market cannot be forever going up with interest rate near zero, It is an US election play. What happened to all QE money and why Russia and China are rushing to buy gold. Why Euro Nations are printing money and Japan too. Why Brexit and why Italian banks collasped. Is it a sign of global recession coming? Only US markets are all time high because they printed enough of monopoly USD dollars. Why US GDP is down and there is no fanfare about it? Thanks for sharing.