While every talking head on CNBC was screaming "buy energy" and "load up on defense stocks" after Israel hit Iran this morning, I was doing the opposite. Not because I'm contrarian for the sake of it -- but because the real rotation started weeks ago, and today's headline chasers just walked into a trap.

Let me be clear: oil hitting 78 bucks wasn't the story. Oil staying above $68 was.

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See, I've been saying 68-78, 68-78, 68-78 for months. That's the range. We broke above 68 two days ago and I said in Thursday's video -- inflation cannot be declining if oil prices have rallied off the lows by more than 7%. Well, we just added another 10% to it.

We're now up 30% off the lows. That will be inflationary.

And that inflation means the Fed's not cutting rates. Which means all those tech and small cap bets everyone's making? They just got torched.

The Starting Blocks Don't Lie

You know what happened today while everyone was panic-buying energy? Bonds got destroyed. Completely erased yesterday's move. Created a higher high, lower low expansion candle and wiped out the entire breakout.

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Am I clear?

That's not the behavior of a market pricing in lower rates. That's the behavior of a market that just realized inflation isn't going anywhere.

But here's what nobody's talking about -- the defensive sectors already moved before today's news hit.

Healthcare was already up 60% off its lows. Utilities broke out yesterday. Consumer staples made new highs this week. The smart money positioned itself in the bullish starting blocks weeks ago while everyone else was still betting on tech.

Why Today's "Obvious" Trade Is Actually Backward

Everyone sees oil spike and thinks "energy stocks to the moon." But that's exactly backward thinking.

If oil stays above 68 -- and it doesn't even need to stay at 78 -- we're looking at persistent inflation. And persistent inflation means the Fed can't cut rates to save small caps and tech stocks.

The real rotation isn't into energy because of one geopolitical event. The real rotation is into defensive sectors because the business cycle just shifted.

We might've just got shoved back into the contraction phase of the global economy. Property values falling in 60% of major metropolitan areas. GDP decreased last month. Stock prices haven't fallen yet, but this is where we potentially are in the business cycle.

My Three Canaries Just Died

I tell people all the time -- I have three canaries in the coal mine. If they're alive, the market can go up. If they're dead, everybody's suffocating.

Visa V, MasterCard MA, and home builders.

Look what happened today. Visa got crushed. Not because of interest rates -- Visa doesn't make money off interest rates. They make money off transactions. Every time you swipe that card, it's a statement of how the consumer is doing.

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And when we look at home builders, they've already dropped from 127 down to 82. That's a 40% correction. These companies don't have enough money to go the year without selling inventory at a discount.

The canaries are telling us the consumer is tapped out. They can't use their credit cards. They're not buying homes. The transactions are stopping.

What I'm Actually Buying (While Others Chase Headlines)

Utilities. Healthcare. Consumer staples.

Not because they're "safe" -- because they're where the rotation is actually going. The year says buy utilities. The month says buy utilities. We're just timing it with the weekly monkey bars.

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NextEra NEE got a buy signal this week at 72. You'd already be up a dollar forty. CEG broke out huge -- we got buy signals at 290, and it's targeting 380.

This isn't about playing defense. This is about positioning for the next phase of the cycle before everyone else figures it out.

The Real Opportunity Everyone's Missing

While the financial media obsesses over geopolitical theater, the Fed just told you something way more important through bond prices and oil action.

Rate cuts got pushed back. Maybe permanently if inflation stays sticky. And that changes everything about which sectors win and which sectors get left behind.

The starting blocks have been set for weeks. Healthcare, utilities, consumer staples -- they're all in bullish starting blocks pointing higher. Meanwhile, tech and small caps just hit the wall of higher-for-longer rates.

The race already started. Most people are still looking for the starting line.

Am I clear? The time to position for this rotation isn't after CNBC figures it out. It's right now, while everyone else is still trading yesterday's headlines.

Because in this market, being early isn't just an advantage -- it's the only way to win.

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