'Dimon' - Hands Lift Stocks; Bonds, Bitcoin, & Dollar Dumped

As says JPMorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon, so goes the stock market... at least for today... During JPM's Investor Day (not exactly a time for dour outlooks), investors hear optimistic tones in the following sentence from Dimon...

“Strong economy, big storm clouds,” the JPMorgan Chase & Co. chief executive officer said at the firm’s investor day Monday.

I’m calling it storm clouds because they’re storm clouds. They may dissipate.

Dimon added that a recession is possible, but it would be unlike past downturns because of the unique blend of economic conditions acting on the economy.

As a reminder, Dimon’s comments follow remarks from Goldman CEO David Solomon last week, saying that there is a chance or recession amid “extremely punitive” inflation, though he’s not overly concerned about the risk of such a downturn.

JPM rallied 6% today, its best day since Nov 2020...

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Of course not... when have ever really heard a CEO of a major bank say he expects a recession and the credit-crushing pain that goes with it... especially when bank stocks have been clubbed like a baby seal...

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Source: Bloomberg

And that was enough for stocks to enter liftoff mode. After Friday afternoon's pre-opex meltup, futures extended gains overnight and Dimon's comments were just what the doctor ordered as an excuse to buy some more, lifting The Dow up over 2% at its highs. Late in the day some selling appeared but that was quickly bid. Small Caps were the laggards but even they managed a 1% gain on the day...

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The S&P appeared to double-top (at last week's support) on this bounce and was unable to recover the key 4,000 level...

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Banks were the day's best performers but Discretionary stocks lagged (an odd combination given Dimon's optimism as the driver - is consumer strong or weak?)...

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Source: Bloomberg

Standout stocks today were the Monkeypox vaccine-makers, most specifically GeoVax Labs (GOVX) which is up 300% in the last 3 days...

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Put/Call ratios are on the rise again, back near their COVID crisis peaks...

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Source: Bloomberg

As we noted earlier, credit markets are starting to show signs of stress with 'triple-hooks' at their widest since Powell flip-flopped in 2018...

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Source: Bloomberg

Bonds were battered as stocks jumped with yields up 8bps across the curve (with the short-end outperforming, up around 5bps)...

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Source: Bloomberg

10Y Yields remain below 3.00% but 30Y bounced off it today...

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Source: Bloomberg

The dollar continued its recent slide, now back at one-month lows...

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Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin rallied over the weekend to erase Friday's plunge... only to fall back below $30k this afternoon...

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Source: Bloomberg

Gold rebounded (after a spike at the futures open yesterday)

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Oil prices chopped around ending unusually unchanged for once...

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NatGas exploded higher (up 9%), back near multi-decade highs on EU buying plans ahead of winter and domestic heat warnings (driving utility demand)

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Finally, we note that options flow today was not buying the Dimon dip...

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Source: SpotGamma

Can it hold?

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