3 Key Takeaways

• Monitor this week’s Treasury auctions closely for signs of weak demand, which could push 10-year yields above 4.15% and reverse the recent downtrend.
• Watch the dollar index for a move above 99, which would confirm a bullish double-bottom pattern and strengthen the outlook for the U.S. dollar.
• Track widening credit spreads as long as stocks like BX, APO, and META for further deterioration.

It’s unlikely to be a very busy week from an economic data standpoint as long as the government remains shut down. However, that won’t stop the Treasury from issuing more debt through 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasury auctions.

The 10-year Treasury rate has been trending lower since mid-July, but it’s now in a position to break out and start pushing higher again. At this point, to reverse the trend, all it would take would be a move above 4.15%. With rates having fallen significantly recently, this week’s Treasury auctions will provide insight into how eager investors are to purchase U.S. notes at these reduced yields. A weak Treasury auction could be all that’s needed to break the trendline.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The same holds true for the dollar index, which continues to show the momentum indicator on the RSI trending higher. While the dollar remains stuck around 97, there is a clear bullish divergence that has formed with the RSI, making the likelihood of a double bottom somewhat stronger. Still, the dollar index needs to rise above 99 to confirm this more bullish view of the dollar — a view that is not widely held.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Speaking of the dollar, the USDJPY could be weaker to start this week, now that the elections are over, and it would seem that the probable Japan PM Sanae Takaichi is viewed more as a fiscal dove, and is a protege of former PM Shinzo Abe. This could be one reason why narrowing spreads in Japan against US Treasuries have not strengthened the USDJPY. We will have to see how the market responds, but my initial thought is that we will likely see a weaker yen and higher Japanese rates.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Speaking of spreads, we’ve started to see Italian and German spreads begin to widen slightly. This spread has been historically tight and could be partly to blame for tight spreads globally. If this spread continues to widen, I would expect global spreads to follow suit.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Italian rates have been one of the few in Europe that haven’t risen. French and German rates have been trending higher lately, while Italian 10-year yields have been moving mostly sideways. It’s possible that Italian rates could start rising again soon, as one could certainly argue there’s a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern forming.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Additionally, in recent days, even in the U.S., we’ve seen the ICE BofA High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread begin to rise as well. If the U.S. labor market is truly weakening, one would expect credit spreads to widen.

(Click on image to enlarge)

We care about things like credit spreads because stocks are highly sensitive to changes in spreads. Even the recent widening in spreads hasn’t yet been reflected in stock prices.

(Click on image to enlarge)

It’s quite possible that the reason we’ve seen stocks like Blackstone…

(Click on image to enlarge)

…and Apollo’s stock fall is because the smarter parts of the market are starting to price in a deterioration in credit.

(Click on image to enlarge)

This could mean that all the AI spending may come back to bite at some point, and those who spend the most could suffer as a result. Meta.

(Click on image to enlarge)

We will just have to wait and see…

More By This Author:

A Major Stock Market Storm Is Brewing
Repo Usage And Leverage Pricing Signal Growing Stock Market Headwinds
The Music Has Stopped But The Stock Market Continues To Play