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Just in early October, Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $126,198. After its fourth death cross since 2023 on November 16th, when the 50-day moving average went under the 200-day moving average, Bitcoin’s price has fallen by 33% to $84K.

The market sentiment is now at 11, denoting CMC’s “extreme fear” category on the Fear and Greed Index, the lowest in its tracking history since July 2023. Historically, this has been the best position to gain long-term exposure. After all, markets panic, tourists exit, and the strongest hands accumulate.

Yet, after Michael Burry abruptly shut down his hedge fund, Scion Asset Management on November 10th, investors are wondering if Bitcoin’s latest death cross is more significant, foreshadowing an even greater price drop.

Let’s examine the narratives driving BTC price in either direction.

Putting Bitcoin’s Death Crosses in Context

Across a dozen death crosses in Bitcoin’s trading history, double-digit gains typically follow them within a couple of months. Within a single month, BTC returns have been nearly split between gains and losses, delivering a positive median of 0.25% – 2.35%.

Overall, Bitcoin’s death crosses, marked as red lines against yellow golden crosses on the chart below, represent a lagging indicator. As such, it reflects a slowdown that has already happened instead of predicting the future.

Yet, as indicators of local bottoms signaling a slowdown in medium-term momentum, Bitcoin’s death crosses should not be viewed as a direct sell signal. Within 3 months, investors have seen the historical median return of up to 26%.

With a price crash under the $90k resistance zone, Bitcoin’s support level is presently at $85K, as the hourly Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicator is moving in the bearish direction. Considering this trend, it is likely the BTC price will drop even further, reflecting the current macroeconomic landscape.

Macro-Powered Death Cross

In the recent coverage of Michael Saylor’s Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR), we explained how President Trump played a pivotal role in inflating the crypto market, with Bitcoin as the vanguard. However, as it becomes increasingly apparent to even low-info voters that President Trump serves non-American interests, he ends up demoralizing not only his base but the broader political process as well.

In turn, such demoralization exhausts and deflates the narrative surrounding Bitcoin. This powerful psychological backdrop – in which people sense being system-locked, irrespective of voting – should not be ignored.

On top of that, the Federal Reserve is increasingly unlikely to spur significant liquidity with more rate cuts during 2026. With the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and the cementing of the new tariff regime boosted by Europe’s deep subjugation, the following year should be stable enough that drastic Fed interventions are unlikely.

With that in mind, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday he supports another December rate cut due to the weakening labor market. According to CME’s FedWatch, this would put the Fed’s funding rate in the 3.50-3.75% range, accounting for the 73.3% probability of a 25 bps December rate cut.

However, the “December rate cut” narrative is likely to be overshadowed by the Fed’s broader hawkish stance, which suggests rate policy will remain restrictive well into 2026, limiting any sustained relief rally in Bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s Price Relies on Institutional Support

Mirroring the bear period in February and March, when BTC price dropped below $80k, Bitcoin spot ETF inflows have also seen massive selloffs, as shown by the red outflows on the chart below.

Nonetheless, when viewing the total cumulative ETF flow since their launch in early 2024, this is a minor dip. At the current cumulative flow of $57.37 billion, it is roughly in line with late September levels, just before Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $126k.

During this period, Harvard University’s endowment gained massive exposure to Bitcoin via BlackRock’s 6.8 million IBIT shares, worth $442.8 million at the time. It is rare to see such conviction from a university, suggesting that smart money may double- and triple-down on Bitcoin.

After the week’s selloff streak, continuing from last week, Wednesday’s ETF flows turned positive with $75.47 million coming in. However, this significantly reversed on Thursday with the most significant daily selloff since late February, at $903.11 million, according to SoSoValue tracking.

If inflows stabilize over the coming weeks, Bitcoin could regain its footing above the $90k resistance zone and set the stage for another accumulation phase. At present, it appears institutions are buying selectively, waiting for clearer macro signals before committing fully.

In other words, retail panic is meeting institutional appetite, determining the sustainability of Bitcoin’s next move.

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