Bitcoin has entered its longest consolidation period, currently 92 days, according to analysts. This could be followed by a notable surge in prices based on past trends.

Consolidation periods typically mean lower trading volumes and reduced volatility. This is often preceded by notable growth in terms of price.

Consolidation leads to price surge 

According to crypto analyst Mags, this trend has been observed in past market cycles.

For instance, after the 2020 Bitcoin halving, a 21-day consolidation led to a breakout to $69,000 in November 2021.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Bitcoin consolidation periods. Source: Mags on X

Reiterating a bullish stance, Mags wrote in a Jun. 9 post:   

“Once price breaks out of this consolidation range, we are going to witness a massive upside rally.”

Bitcoin began consolidating after it reached an all-time high of $73,679 on March 13, 2024. Since then, the cryptocurrency has traded within a tight range, with a low of $58,253 on May 2.

The current consolidation period is the longest on record, surpassing previous cycles.

According to analyst Daan Crypto Trades, “the longer a consolidation, the larger the expansion afterward.”

Fed policy results in mixed views

The enthusiasm around Bitcoin came despite the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance.  The Fed has maintained higher interest rates and signalled fewer rate cuts than the market might expect.

Despite this, analysts CryptoCon remained bullish on Bitcoin. 

In a June 12 post, CryptoCon predicted that Bitcoin could surge 25% beyond its all-time high of $73,679, reaching $91,539 before peaking at $123,832. 

His prediction was based on the “Magic Bands” model, which takes into consideration Bitcoin’s historical price cycles. CryptoCon’s model indicated that Bitcoin is currently at level 2.5. 

Once it moves past this consolidation phase, it is expected to advance to level 3 at $91,539, followed by the ultimate target of $123,832. 

However, some analysts had opposing views.

Michaël van de Poppe of MN Trading Consultancy mentioned that the Fed’s hawkish tone “isn’t positive” and could impact Bitcoin.

On the other hand, Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, suggested the FOMC’s expectations might be overly ambitious. He noted that the Fed might need to revise its stance later in the year as inflation figures stabilise. 

The head of research asserted that while the FOMC expects just one rate cut, market forecasts hint at a reduction from the six anticipated at the beginning of the year.

Higher interest rates typically lead to lesser investments in high-risk assets like Bitcoin. This is mainly due to the reduced liquidity that follows. 

Some analysts believe the current enthusiasm might be short-lived, with potential downward corrections ahead.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $67,605.

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