Image Source: Unsplash

The Fed also ended its quantitative tightening program on December 1. Quantitative tightening contracts the central bank’s balance sheet to cool economic growth. Ending this program could inject more cash into the economy.

The US government shutdown entered its fifth week. Republicans and Democrats remain deadlocked over government spending plans. Trump called on Republicans to abolish the Senate filibuster rule, which allows small groups of senators to block majority actions.

The shutdown has delayed SEC approval of several crypto ETFs. It also stalled progress on the CLARITY Act, a bill addressing crypto market structure.

Bitcoin finished October 2025 with a nearly 5% decline, marking the first red October for the cryptocurrency since 2018. The loss broke a seven-year winning streak for what had become known as a favorable month for crypto traders.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price

The month saw the largest cryptocurrency liquidation in history. On October 10-11, traders liquidated $19 billion worth of positions over just 24 hours. Bitcoin dropped to $104,782.88 during this period, just days after reaching a new all-time high above $126,000.

The crash came after President Trump announced 100% tariffs on Chinese imports and threatened export controls on critical software. These trade tensions created uncertainty across financial markets.

Despite October’s decline, Bitcoin remains up more than 16% for 2025. The cryptocurrency now enters November with historical data on its side.

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Source: Coinglass

Since 2013, Bitcoin has averaged gains of 42.51% during November. This makes it the strongest performing month historically for the cryptocurrency. If history repeats, Bitcoin could theoretically surpass $160,000 this month.

However, crypto analyst Markus Thielen from 10x Research cautioned that seasonal patterns need other supporting factors. “I do think seasonal charts matter a lot, but it has to be combined with a lot of other factors,” Thielen said.

Trade Tensions and Federal Reserve Actions

Recent developments between the US and China showed signs of easing tensions. President Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea on Thursday. Trump described the talks as “amazing” and said he expects a trade deal “pretty soon.”

The agreement includes Trump trimming tariffs on China. In exchange, Beijing will crack down on fentanyl trade, resume US soybean purchases, and end restrictions on rare earth exports for one year.

Dennis Wilder, a professor at Georgetown University, told CBC News the meeting represented more of a “pause” in the trade war rather than a resolution.

The Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates by a quarter point. This lowered the key lending rate to its lowest level in three years. Fed officials will meet again on December 10, 2025.

Traders are pricing in a 63% probability of another rate cut at that meeting, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday that another cut was “not a foregone conclusion.”

Lower interest rates typically benefit Bitcoin. Cheaper borrowing costs historically push investors toward riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.

There you have it, QT is over. Back up the fucking truck and buy everything. pic.twitter.com/kQbpBSOlOU

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) October 14, 2025

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