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Bitcoin remains locked in consolidation after a volatile 2025, with technical and on-chain data shaping expectations for 2026. Analysts point to a resilient long-term structure, short-term range compression, and a notable shift in holder behavior. Together, these signals frame a market stabilizing at support while maintaining ambitious cycle targets into the next year.

Bitcoin Price Holds Long-Term Channel, $210K Target Flagged

According to analyst Crypto GEMs, the weekly Bitcoin price chart on MEXC shows a well-defined ascending channel stretching from 2024 into mid-2026. The structure includes three precise touches on the lower trendline, reinforcing its technical validity. Each bounce has occurred at significantly higher levels, reflecting sustained bullish progression.

$BTC #Bitcoin will top around $210,000 in 2026

Enjoy pic.twitter.com/iEAoiehnCy

— Crypto GEMs 📈🚀 (@cryptogems555) December 30, 2025

The current pullback from the $108,000 zone has returned the price toward the lower boundary near $87,000. This move resembles prior mid-cycle corrections within the same channel. Importantly, price remains above structural support, suggesting the broader uptrend remains intact rather than broken.

The analyst highlighted a projected upper channel extension near $211,857 in 2026. Historically, Bitcoin cycle peaks have aligned with channel breakouts or upper rail tests. Based on prior move symmetry, a rally toward the $150,000 to $180,000 region could precede a final advance. However, a sustained breakdown below $80,000 would invalidate this bullish framework.

Daily Bitcoin Price Range Tightens Below $90K Resistance

Meanwhile, analyst Ted reported continued consolidation on the daily BTC against the USD chart on Binance. Since April 2025, Bitcoin price has struggled to reclaim the $100,000 level. Repeated rejections between $90,000 and $108,000 have established a dense resistance zone.

On the downside, support has held consistently between $84,000 and $87,000. Price is currently oscillating near the lower end of this range. Ted notes that thinning year-end liquidity has contributed to muted volatility and indecision.

$BTC is still stuck in the $87,000-$90,000 range.

Until Bitcoin reclaims the $90,000 level, the upside is capped.

In case BTC loses the $87,000 zone, a revisit of the $84,000-$85,000 level is highly likely to happen. pic.twitter.com/2AFilF7lnm

— Ted (@TedPillows) December 30, 2025

This compression often precedes a directional expansion. A daily close above $90,000 would likely reopen a test of six-figure levels. Conversely, losing $87,000 could trigger a stop sweep toward $84,000 before stabilization. Until a resolution is reached, range-based strategies continue to dominate short-term positioning.

Long-Term Holders Pause Selling, Easing Downside Risk

In addition, analyst Solid highlighted a key shift in long-term holder behavior using Checkonchain data. The 30-day net position change for long-term holders shows selling pressure peaked during the mid-2025 rally. That distribution phase coincided with the $108,000 local high.

Since late November, the metric has flattened near neutral. This marks the first sustained pause in selling since July 2025. Price stabilization around $87,000 has occurred alongside this change, suggesting supply pressure has eased.

For the first time since July, long-term $BTC holders have halted their selling pic.twitter.com/vRX6ay3RN4

— Solid 堅固 ⬡ (@SolidTradesz) December 30, 2025

Historically, a halt in long-term distribution often follows corrective phases rather than market tops. Reduced selling tightens available supply, which can amplify upside when demand returns. While short-term momentum remains subdued, this supply dynamic supports a constructive outlook for 2026. A shift toward positive net accumulation would further strengthen the case.

Bitcoin price trades within a narrow range while holding a resilient macro structure. Analysts agree that resolution is likely deferred into early 2026. Until then, the market remains balanced between consolidation risk and long-term upside potential.

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