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The October 2025 Top: End of the 3-Year Bull Cycle

Back in October 2025, Bitcoin completed a textbook three-year bull cycle. At the time, price structure, momentum exhaustion, and higher-timeframe wave alignment all pointed to a major cycle top — a view we publicly shared before the reversal unfolded.

The market topped precisely as higher-degree wave (5) of III completed, followed by clear signs of distribution rather than continuation. What followed was not a surprise move, but a natural transition into a corrective phase that typically follows extended impulsive advances.

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BTCUSD Weekly Chart From October 2025

This top set the stage for a much larger correction — not just a pullback, but a structural reset on the weekly timeframe.

Current Market Structure: Wave A in Progress

Fast forward to today, and Bitcoin is now firmly in a sharp and impulsive decline, which we identify as wave A of a larger ABC correction, forming higher-degree wave IV.

Key characteristics supporting this count:

• Strong downside momentum

• Impulsive internal structure

• Breakdown of prior bull-market support zones

• Failed attempts at sustained recovery

Wave A corrections are typically emotional, fast, and unforgiving — and that’s exactly what we’re seeing now. This is not random volatility; it’s a structural unwind after a multi-year expansion.

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BTCUSD Weekly Chart From February 2026 

What Comes Next: A 2026 Bear Market with a Mid-Cycle Recovery

Higher-degree wave IV corrections often take time, not just price. Based on historical Bitcoin cycles and Elliott Wave proportions, this corrective phase can realistically extend around one year, potentially lasting into late 2026.

However, this does not mean straight downside.

Within the larger ABC structure:

• Wave A: Current impulsive decline

• Wave B: A corrective recovery phase, likely in mid-2026

• Wave C: Final leg of the correction before the trend resumes

Wave B can be deceptive. It often looks bullish, feels convincing, and can offer tradable upside, but it remains corrective in nature and should be treated as such.

The Bigger Picture: Preparation, Not Prediction

Once wave IV completes, the long-term bullish trend is expected to resume with a new impulsive phase. But until then, patience and structure matter more than bias.

This phase is about:

• Managing risk

• Understanding where we are in the cycle

• Avoiding emotional positioning

• Preparing for high-probability setups rather than chasing noise

Bitcoin is not broken — it’s resetting.

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