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Bitcoin Rally Continues

Bitcoin prices were seen breaking out to fresh YTD highs yesterday as the market continues to swell in demand ahead of anticipated spot Bitcoin ETF approvals next month. While the SEC was recently seen delaying its decision on current applications until January 2024, on the back of recent developments with Grayscale, the market is highly expectant that approvals will be granted, ushering in a new wave of institutional demand. Indeed, the rally this week comes despite the recovery we’re seeing in USD which is weighing on other risk assets.
 

Shifting Central Bank Expectations

With interest rates around the world now widely expected to fall next year, Bitcoin and other crypto assets are seeing a surge in demand. Added to this, the upcoming halving event in April 2024 is also expected to drive bullish price action. With these factors combined, the near-term outlook for Bitcoin looks firmly bullish.
 

Risks Remain

However, it is worth noting that there is plenty of downside risk around the current ETF excitement. If the SEC denies approval for the current applications, this will lead to heavy position squaring, taking BTC lower near-term. Similarly, further delays might also frustrate bulls, creating a sense of uncertainty that could halt gains temporarily.
 

Technical Views

Bitcoin

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The rally in bitcoin has seen the market breaking out above the bull channel highs and above several key resistance levels. Price is now fast approaching the 45520 level and with momentum studies bullish, the focus is on a continued push higher for now. To the downside, 39860 and the retest of the broken channel top will be the main support area to watch. 

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