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BTC Slipping From Highs

Price action in Bitcoin today is looking precarious with Bitcoin futures having turned lower through the bullish trend line off the May lows, pushing back below the 69,355 level. The uptick in USD on the back of Fridays’ bumper NPF release has weighed heavily on Bitcoin sentiment. Industry data shows that BTC ETFs have seen a net-outflow of over $60 million this week, breaking the almost 3-week winning streak that ETFs had been on prior to Friday’s data.
 

Big Risks Ahead

Looking ahead this week, there are clear downside risks for BTC with the US CPI report and FOMC both due on Wednesday. If we see CPI holding at current levels (3.4%) or rising, this should see September easing expectations dropping sharply. If the Fed is seen reaffirming the need to keep rates higher for longer this should keep USD supported near-term, seeing BTC prices heading lower. On the other hand, if we see any surprise drop in inflation, this should lead to a more dovish outlook from the Fed, bolstering September easing expectations and leading to a lower USD and higher BTC.
 

Technical Views                      

Bitcoin

The reversal lower in BTC has seen the market breaking back under the 69,355 level, below the rising trend line from the May lows and back inside the bear channel. While below 69,355 the focus is on a further push lower with 66,625 the next support to note ahead of 64,540. To the topside, 74,325 remains the key objective for bulls. 

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