Bitcoin Remains Muted

It’s been a disappointing week for Bitcoin bulls with the leading crypto asset seen lower on the back of the April halving event. There had been plenty of speculation ahead of the event regarding the potential for a fresh rally on the back of supply being reduced. However, this upside has yet to materialise and despite some initial strength, BTC futures have drifted lower over the last week of trading.

Pre-Halving Rally Fades

One likely reason for the current malaise we’re seeing is the heavy rally we saw ahead of the halving event. BTC futures rallied around 90% off the YTD lows into the March highs printed a few weeks ahead of halving with buyers capitalising on bullish anticipation ahead of the event. Analysis of prior halving event shows that BTC is typically lower in the three months post-halving before going onto print fresh highs over the 12 months post-halving. With that in mind, the current consolidation and correction in BTC might last longer and push a little deeper before upside resumes.  

Shifting Fed Outlook

A shift in Fed expectations has also created near-term headwinds for BTC. With the market having pushed out its expected date for initial Fed easing from June to September, USD has remained firm in recent months. This shift has halted the prior rally in risk assets, stunting upside momentum in crypto also. However, if this picture starts to shift over the summer (essentially, if we see inflation start to fall again), this should reignite easing expectations, driving a fresh rally across risk assets including crypto.

Technical Views

BTC

For now, BTC remains within the 60695 – 74325 range which has framed price action over the last two months. Price is currently testing the contracting triangle low, around the 65450 with and with momentum studies bearish, a fresh test of range lows is in sight. Should we break lower, 49425 will be the broader bear target. 

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