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BTC Remains Bid

Bitcoin prices are starting the week in the green with BTC futures lightly bid through early European trading on Monday.  The market broke out to fresh highs for the month last week as traders reacted to softer US inflation. However, the market has yet to see proper follow through on the initial move, suggesting some hesitation ahead of a fresh test of current highs. Traders are now once again looking for the Fed to ease in September, having previously pushed out easing expectations to November. If the Fed easing narrative starts to gain proper traction again, this should help keep Bitcoin prices supported near-term.
 

Near-Term Focus

Looking ahead this week, we have plenty of Fed commentary due along with the FOMC minutes midweek and some US data across the back end of the week. BTC bulls will be looking for Fed commentary to lean on the dovish side, keeping USD pressured lower which should allow BTC room to continue higher near-term. Additionally, any further data weakness will also be positive for BTC bulls.
 

Medium-Term View

Looking further out, it's likely that seasonality will be a big factor for Bitcoin. Following the April halving event prices have remained well within the range of recent months and look likely to remain range bound through summer unless we see a meaningful macro change such as a sharp drop or rise in US inflation, altering the Fed outlook.
 

Technical Views

BTC

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The rally in BTC has seen price breaking out above the contracting triangle top and above the 64540 level. With momentum studies bullish, focus is now on a test of the 69355 level and bear channel highs. This will be a key pivot for the market with a break higher bolstering the chances of a breakout to fresh highs. 60695 remains key downside support to watch. 

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