Bitcoin Commentary - Friday, November 24

BTC Shrugs Off Binance News

Bitcoin is ending the week at highs with the futures price seeing a more than 6% rally yesterday. The move comes amidst a fresh uptick in expectations that the SEC will soon approve spot BTC ETF applications. Notably, the market has shaken off negative news flow this week around Binance. News came earlier in the week that criminal charges have been brought against Binance, for which it will pay $4.3 billion in fines, along with the guilty plea and exit of founder Changpeng Zhao. Bulls look to be taking the view that the prosecution will ultimately serve the interest of the market given the SEC’s concerns over foreign manipulation of crypto prices. With ‘CZ’ stepping away, bulls feel that a further obstacle has been cleared in terms of securing ETF approval.


Weaker USD Supporting Crypto

Along with ETF approval optimism, bulls are also being buoyed by developments within the market's outlook on the Fed and USD. With the Fed now seen staying on hold through the coming months before rate cuts begin in H1 2024, risk assets such as BTC look well positioned to gain further against a softer USD. Incoming US data will now be closely watched with any downside surprises seen as strengthening the chances of a forthcoming rate cut, keeping BTC supported.


Technical Views

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The breakout above the 37030 level has stalled for now into the upper trendline of the bull channel. With BTC holding, focus remains on further upside though softening momentum studies suggest pullback risks. While BTC holds above the 34755 level, 39860 remains the next target for bulls. 

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