Bitcoin And Ethereum Preparing A Correction In A Secular Uptrend
Bitcoin and Ethereum have recently experienced a few really good weeks. Both tokens recovered very fast after a deep pullback that reversed suddenly at the depth of the banking crisis. However, in this current market environment, there are no sustained trends.
All market trends tend to last between one and three weeks, and crypto is no exception. Any crypto bull run in 2023 has only lasted three weeks at maximum. Case in point: XRP went up for only three weeks even though XRP has the most beautiful long-term chart setup of 2023. So, what’s next for BTC, ETH, and the rest of the crypto market?
Talking about a sudden move in crypto, when the rally in crypto and leading indexes like the S&P 500 started, there was so much pessimism that we were seemingly the only ones writing the following articles:
- Big Opportunity: Tech Stocks Are The New Leaders
- Markets Downside Target Reached – What Now?
- How To Know Whether There Is Systemic Risk In This Market?
The consensus was that a big downtrend was starting, and we said the exact opposite: there will be no downtrend until and unless our systemic market crash indicator breaks down.
Let’s take a look at the BTC and ETH charts, starting with the daily timeframe and then moving on to the weekly timeframe (long-term, big picture), in order to answer the question “what’s next for crypto.”
BTC registered a beautiful reversal. In our crypto investing research service, we said on Tuesday, April 18 that BTC hit major resistance, and the pullback started one day later. That’s because 30.3,000 marked the 50% retracement level of the big decline between November 2021 and November 2022.
The lower levels that should be tested in the next four to eight weeks are 25,000 and 22,000. Below 22,000 there appears to be good support, and we don’t foresee a new downtrend that would break 20,000 to the downside.
The long-term BTC chart is pretty impressive. On the one hand, this is because it shows how big the decline was since November of 2021, on the other hand, it is also because it shows how much upside potential there is. In other words, the recent run from 20,000 to 30,000 is just a tiny run in the grand scheme of things.
At the same time, anyone can see how fragile and young this current reversal still is. There is more work (and time) needed for it to become a really strong reversal structure that will allow a big and sustained run higher.
Similarly, ETH, the other leading indicator in the crypto market, has a profile comparable to BTC. The daily chart has resistance at the exact same level as where BTC had its resistance: $2090. That’s where ETH started retracing.
The long-term ETH chart, frankly, looks more aggressive. We believe there is a large amount of upside potential here, but the reversal is also young and fragile.
Conclusion: while the recent run was impressive, it was primarily due to the fact that it happened at a very unexpected point in time. The run in BTC was almost 50%, the one in ETH some 35%.
The upside potential in both is huge, however, a break is required because the charts need more time for solid base building. Remember, the longer the basing pattern, the more powerful the next move will be.
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