Bitcoin & Laser Eyes

"Laser Eyes" in the title refers to the latest evolution in the Bitcoin mania, "laser ray to $100K" is what it means. The gains of late have been staggering, up 80% so far this year along with other eye popping results for whatever time frame you look at. Bitcoin Twitter is ecstatic. I'm sure the Bitcoin corner of whatever your favorite social media platform is equally ecstatic. The touts are out in full force exhorting anyone who will listen to buy more. I'm seeing plenty of silly comments like fundamental value doesn't matter and so on.


If you're at least 40, you've seen this sort of frenzy before. It is a behavior that repeats. The sentiment isn't automatically wrong though. The actual internet, what it has become and how we use it has far exceeded the promise of the mid-90's as the typical person understood it. It just so happened that almost all of the first batch of stocks were failures. A couple of people who I know personally and respect as being very smart tell me Bitcoin is the real thing, it will be the real thing it will do what the touts say. Of course that can all be true at a lower price from here. Some of the arguments for continued price appreciation have to do with it replacing gold, more companies/institutions adopting it for various uses maybe the way MicroStrategy (MSTR) has. If you care at all about Bitcoin you know some of the others too but those are just theories with price projections frequently based on nothing but extrapolation.

Just because extrapolation is often confused for analysis in the crypto world, doesn't mean those guess will be wrong. They could be right. Right here, right now there is no way to know, only guesses. I've been saying all along that it could go to a bazillion like the touts say or it could go to zero and I still believe that. Zero is becoming less of a possibility but not impossible.

You might recall the mania in Bitcoin in late 2017/early 2018 which sent the price up to a little under $20,000 and the subsequent 80% correction. In the throws of that 80% corrections the touts were quick to say that the massive decline was totally normal for Bitcoin and that it will happen again. I am not seeing any else now saying that it can happen again, an 80% decline so I will say it, if 80% declines were normal when the last one happened then they are still normal now or at $60,000 or $80,000 or whatever.

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