• The AUD/USD outlook remains subdued, following weaker Australian jobs data.
• Fed rate cuts are weighing on the US dollar, limiting AUD/USD losses.
• Technically, the 20-period MA remains decisive for the traders as closing below could exacerbate selling.

The AUD/USD price slipped in the Asian session on Thursday, paring off Wednesday’s partial gains led by the Fed rate cut. The downtick move stemmed from the November labour market report that delivered a mixed message. The pair hovers near 0.6635, down 0.60% on the day, as markets digest steady unemployment but a sharp fall in full-time hiring.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that unemployment remained at 4.3%, beating estimates of 4.4% by a small margin. However, the employment change showed a decrease of 21.3k, the biggest monthly fall in nine months, driven by a plunge in full-time jobs of more than 56k. Meanwhile, the participation rate slipped to 66.7%, the lowest in eight months, while part-time hiring climbed by 35.2k.

Sean Crick, head of ABS, noted that both employment and unemployment declined simultaneously, indicating that workers were exiting the labor force. The employment-to-population ratio also slipped 0.2% to 63.8%.

The weaker data immediately affected the Aussie, causing it to slip modestly against all its major peers. The data reinforced the view of a cooling labor market, but it remains far from weak. Meanwhile, the RBA policy expectations continue to lend support to the Australian dollar as Governor Bullock reiterated the rate hike scenario if Q4 CPI remains firm. However, today’s data might not help the central bank to continue tightening unless the December data confirms.

On the other hand, the Dollar Index remains mildly subdued following the Fed’s widely expected 25-basis-point rate cut on Wednesday. Despite projecting only one cut in 2026, Powell emphasised rising downside risk in the labour market, prompting the investors to price in two more cuts next year. The dovish tone has capped the dollar strength, lending room to the AUD/USD buyers.
 

AUD/USD Key Events Ahead:

The only important data due on the day is US unemployment claims. The release could cause short-term market volatility.
 

AUD/USD Technical Outlook: Pressure Under 20-MA
 

(Click on image to enlarge)

AUD/USD 4-hour chart
 

The AUD/USD price hit the supply zone and reversed sharply below the 20-period MA on the 4-hour chart, with eyes on the confluence of a demand zone and 50-period MA near 0.6600. In case of further decline, the pair could further drift lower to the 100- and 200-period MA cluster under 0.6550. The RSI has also dropped from the overbought zone to the 50.0 level, revealing intense selling pressure.

On the other hand, the 4-hour candle closing above the 20-period MA could gather buying momentum and aim to test the daily highs at 0.6686, ahead of 0.6700.

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