Are We In Recession? The Sahm Rule Now & 2007
Here’s 2007-08:
Figure 1: Sahm rule real time (tan), current vintage (blue), in %. NBER recession dates (post-peak to trough) shaded gray. Source: FRED, NBER.
And here’s now (on same vertical scale, for context):
Figure 2: Sahm rule real time (tan), current vintage (blue), in %. Source: FRED.
As long time adherent to term spread predictor of recessions, I must say doesn’t look like the recession has yet arrived. This in line with monthly and weekly business cycle indicators shown in this post, and this post.
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