The Bloomberg consensus was 162,000 so this was a very weak report.

ADP vs BLS Nonfarm Payrolls.

The ADP^® National Employment Report shows a gain in private employment of 77,000 in February. The BLS reports nonfarm payrolls on Friday.

Nela Richardson, Chief Economist, comments “ADP Policy uncertainty and a slowdown in consumer spending might have led to layoffs or a slowdown in hiring last month. Our data, combined with other recent indicators, suggests a hiring hesitancy among employers as they assess the economic climate ahead.”

ADP Change by Establishment Size

Once again we see weakness in small businesses.

Note that ADP is private employment while nonfarm payrolls include government jobs.

I expect a dramatic slowdown in government employment, especially at the state an local level which had been rapidly hiring to handle needs of illegal immigrants.

How Will 77,000 DOGE Terminations Impact Unemployment and Jobs?

On February 20, I addressed the question How Will 77,000 DOGE Terminations Impact Unemployment and Jobs?

Congrats!

“So, congrats, I suppose, to the 77,000 people who get an eight-month vacation,” Leavitt told NewsNation.

Those who accepted the offer are still getting paid so there should be no unemployment claims related to the 77,000 layoffs for 8 months.

Since they are still technically working, if they take another job, the BLS will see this as a new job. However, these persons will likely take a job from someone else who would have gotten one.

Sneak Previews

Weekly unemployment claims will be released later today. So we will soon have an indication of recent unpaid layoffs.

Anna Wong is chief economist for Bloomberg.

DOGE Layoffs

Image from layoffs.fyi

The BLS reference week is usually is the 7-day calendar week (Sunday–Saturday) that includes the 12th of the month, with occasional exceptions.

Any layoffs in February on or after the 16th will not be in the payroll report. And the 77,000 who accepted offers will not show up as unemployed for 8 months.

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