Expectations were for a small increase in jobs added MoM in today's ADP Employment Report, but instead we saw a sizable jump from +155k to +184k jobs added in March - the highest since July...

Source: Bloomberg

Almost all cohorts were positive...

Job gains in Services once again dominated Goods-Producing firms, but both saw increases in March...

"March was surprising not just for the pay gains, but the sectors that recorded them," said Nela Richardson Chief Economist, ADP.

"The three biggest increases for job-changers were in construction, financial services, and manufacturing. Inflation has been cooling, but our data shows pay is heating up in both goods and services."

But most problematically for the inflation picture, Job-Changers saw wage growth jump dramatically to +10.0% YoY...

Finally, we note that ADP has under-estimated BLS's version of the truth for the last seven months...and it's getting worse.

Source: Bloomberg

So, with this kind of labor market, can The Fed maintain the illusion of rate cuts at some point this year? What will Powell say today?

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