10 Charts To Watch In 2019

I spent a lot of time in the 2018 End of Year Special Edition looking back across the year, covering some of my best charts and calls (and some of the worst!).But this article provides a look at the most important part of that report... 

As interesting and sometimes even amusing as it is to look back in time, as investors, we get paid for looking forward and anticipating what may come. In this respect there’s a few existing trends and themes that will remain front of mind for me and will be key to keep on your radar in 2019.  

Following is a selection of the key charts and indicators we will be watching in the new year.The themes span inflation/deflation, monetary policy, commodities, China, emerging markets, corporate bonds, global equities, asset allocation, and the global economy.In other words, all the issues and topics that most active asset allocators should be thinking about. I'll be covering these topics in more detail in the coming weeks on the blog so stay tuned. 

Overall, the theme of “transitions” I think captures a lot of the major moving parts: a transition for central banks from suppressors to sources of volatility, rotation across assets and markets, and a transition stage in the business/market cycle.Risk is clearly elevated, but as the charts show; so too is opportunity.

That all said, here's the charts! Best wishes and best of luck for 2019.

1. Deflation Risk: as I write, over 80% of world equity markets are in “deflation” (price negative YoY%), the risk here is that we see the black and blue lines turn up (proportion of countries seeing forward earnings and industrial production contracting on an annual basis), and if they do it will probably leave us all feeling a little black and blue, because when it comes to economic deflation, what we’re really talking about is the risk of a global economic recession.Keep this chart front of mind and top of your radar this year.

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