Well, that was quite a month...
High(Low)lights...
- China's Renminbi suffered its biggest monthly loss since 1994
- EM FX tumbled to a record low, the worst month in a year
- US Treasury yields plunged in August by most since Sept 2011 (to record low yields at the long-end)
- US Yield Curve flattened most in August since Jan 2016 (to its flattest since 2007)
- Bund yields tumbled 26bps to record lows - the biggest monthly drop since June 2016 (Brexit vote)
- Treasury 'VIX' spiked most in August since May 2009
- Iron Ore Futures (Singapore) suffered their worst month ever...
- Gold has the best August dollar gains since Feb 2016
- Silver had the best August percentage gain since June 2016 (Brexit vote)
Stocks
US and Chinese stocks are surprisingly aligned YTD (both up around 16/17%) with Europe lagging (+13%)...
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Source: Bloomberg
But on the month, all major regions saw stocks lose a similar 1.5 to 2.0%...
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Source: Bloomberg
US equities ended the month lower with Trannies and Small Caps worst, Dow and S&P the least bad...
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Source: Bloomberg
Only The Dow Industrials and Transports are green from last week's Trump tantrum (S&P unch)...
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NOTE - last-minute panic-buying
Defensives dominated the month...
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Source: Bloomberg
The Dow managed to get back above its 100DMA but faded into it at the close today...
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Buybacks saved stocks numerous times this month...
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Source: Bloomberg
And while short-squeezes were used to keep stocks afloat, their surges were weaker and weaker...
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Source: Bloomberg
And... as @TaviCosta notes, another one bites the dust. This beauty was the #2 performer in the S&P 500 since March of ’09! Just broke down from multi-year support line as well.
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Source: Bloomberg
Bonds
Treasury yields utterly collapsed in August (30Y was down over 60bps at its lowest)... The biggest monthly drop in the long-bond's yields since Sept 2011
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Source: Bloomberg
30Y ended the week below 2.00% for the first time ever...
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Source: Bloomberg
A bloodbath for bond bears...
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Source: Bloomberg
And the yield curve collapsed (3m10Y) holding its inversion for
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Source: Bloomberg
And 2s10s closed the week inverted (biggest 2-month flattening since Jan 2015)...
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Source: Bloomberg
And before we leave bond land, we note that 30% of global IG corporate debt is now trading at a negative yield!!
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Source: Bloomberg
FX
The Dollar rallied in August helped by Yuan weakness slightly offset by Yen strength...
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Source: Bloomberg
The broad trade-weighted dollar is at an all-time record high...
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Source: Bloomberg
EURUSD tumbled back below 1.10 for the first time since May 2017
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Source: Bloomberg
Emerging Market FX tumbled to record lows...
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Source: Bloomberg
Cryptos ended in the red for the month after yesterday's plunge (Litecoin the biggest loser)...
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Source: Bloomberg
With Bitcoin back below $10k...
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Source: Bloomberg
Commodities
Silver's best month since the Brexit vote (June 2016) and Gold rallied but crude and copper were clubbed like baby seals...
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Source: Bloomberg
Cotton fell for a fifth straight month in August, the worst such run in more than 14 years, as slowing demand feeds expectations for a global surplus.
Iron Ore Futures (Singapore) suffered their worst month ever...
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Source: Bloomberg
Silver led the precious metals but Platinum had a big month (up most since Jan 2017)
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Source: Bloomberg
Gold ended the week unchanged but well up from Trump's tantrum...
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But Silver dramatically outperformed (up for the 7th week of the last 8)...
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Source: Bloomberg
With Silver at its highest since April 2017
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Source: Bloomberg
Gold continues to track the surge in negative-yielding debt volumes almost perfectly...
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Source: Bloomberg
Finally, bonds and stocks had a very different month, you decide which you trust more...
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Source: Bloomberg
Will it be 1998 or 2013?
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Source: Bloomberg
While August saw a flood into safe-havens like bond and bullion, volatilities are notably divergent in Treasuries and Gold relative to other asset classes...
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Source: Bloomberg




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