Yellen Aims For March Hike

• Fed Chair Yellen provides hawkish guidance, raising expectations for a March 15th Fed hike
• U.S. sovereign bond markets price-in 90% odds for a hike
• Strong view of the economy leads to S&P500 securing 6th consecutive weekly increase
• USD/JPY adds 1.7% weekly on Fed hike expectations

Stock markets and the U.S. Dollar ended the weekly session with a positive note, as Fed Chair Yellen provided guidance that the first hike in 2017 will take place in less than two weeks’ time.

After spending most of the Friday session’s morning in the red, the S&P 500 saw substantial buying pressure towards the middle of the session, ending the day with a 0.05% increase. The stock index, subsequently, concluded five days of trading at a 0.7% increase, marking this its 6th consecutive weekly increase. Having slashed though the 21,000 point mark on Wednesday, the Dow also enjoyed firm support on Friday’s trading, ending the week at 21,005.7. Market optimism also included a fairly successful IPO for Snap, parent of messaging app Snapchat, with USD 3.4 bln raised, followed by a 10.6% increase between Thursday and Friday.

In what many regard as the most hawkish guidance made by the Fed in recent times, Yellen’s commentary included that the Fed’s Monetary Committee members “judge that it will be appropriate to gradually increase the federal fund rate if the economic data continue to come in about as we expect.” Giving more concrete guidance on next Wednesday’s announcement, she added that  “… the Committee will evaluate whether employment and inflation are continuing to evolve in line with our expectations, in which case a further adjustment of the federal fund rate would likely be appropriate.” While these do not guarantee a hike, this type of language is probably as firm as a central bank would like to deliver its message, leaving little room for a policy change that wouldn’t jeopardize its reputation

Markets readjust to new policy

Market’s expectations for a rate hike have been rapidly increasing recently, with the bond market now pricing in 94% odds for a hike in the coming Fed announcement, up from a mere 40%, a week prior.Increasing yields included the U.S. 2 year bond touching a high of 1.34% on Frida’s session, its highest since 2009.

The USD, unsurprisingly, has been showing substantial strength, with USD/JPY adding 1.7% weekly and GBP/USD losing some 1.4%. The Euro is the odd one out as EUR/USD gained 0.6% weekly, fueled by annual inflation in Germany rising to a level of 2.2% and a solid outlook coming from Purchasing Managers’ Indices throughout the Eurozone.

Oil prices, meanwhile, fail to ascend to new highs, as the black gold lost some 1.5% weekly to a level of USD 53.99 per barrel. Selling pressure was supported by the U.S. rig count’s continued ascend, hitting ‘756’ according to Friday Baker Hughes data.