Silver price (XAG/USD) trades cautiously around $78.40 during the late Asian trading session on Friday. The white metal consolidates ahead of the preliminary United States (US) Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which will be published at 13:30 GMT.
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is expected to show that the economy rose at an annualized pace of 3%, slower than 4.4% growth seen in the third quarter of 2025. Signs of slowing US GDP growth would prompt expectations of more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the near term. Silver tends to perform better in a low-interest-rate environment.
Currently, traders have priced in two interest rate cuts by the Fed through 2026, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
In Friday’s session, investors will also focus on private sector Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for February across the globe. The US S&P Global Composite PMI is expected to come in higher than the previous reading of 53.0.
On the global front, tensions between the United States (US) and Iran are expected to keep Silver’s safe-haven appeal upbeat. According to a report from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), President Donald Trump is weighing a limited military strike on Iran to pressure the economy to agree to a nuclear deal.
Silver technical analysis
In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades flat at around $78.44. Price holds beneath a declining 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $81.93, maintaining downside pressure. The 20-day EMA has rolled over in recent sessions and continues to cap recovery attempts.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46 (neutral-to-bearish) keeps momentum below the midline.
Near term, sellers would retain control while the metal remains under the falling average, keeping the room open for a downside move towards the February 6 low of $64.08. On the contrary, a daily close above the 20-EMA could shift risk toward stabilization. Until momentum reclaims the 50 line on RSI, rebounds could lack traction, whereas an RSI break above 50 would improve the recovery outlook.
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