West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $100.00 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. WTI falls after an unexpected build in US crude inventories. Traders continue to assess the developments surrounding the Middle East conflicts as Saudi Arabia suspended oil loadings at its Yanbu port.
US crude oil inventories see an unexpected weekly build, weighing on the WTI price. According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), crude oil stockpiles in the US for the week ending September 11 climbed by 7.14 million barrels, compared to a decline of 300,000 barrels in the previous week. The market consensus was for a fall of 1.8 million barrels.
Reuters reported on Tuesday that oil loadings at Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port had been paused after the world's biggest crude exporter shut its East-West pipeline following an attack by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis on Friday.
Saudi Arabia has used the pipeline to reroute around 4 million barrels per day, or about 4% of global supply, to the Red Sea port. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated on Tuesday that the closure was a brief interruption that will last days. Meanwhile, Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, said that “judging from the on-line pictures, it will take months to repair.” Concerns over supply disruptions could boost the black gold in the near term.
Oil balances tighten as Rabobank flags dwindling inventories and SPR strain
Analysts at Rabobank warn that the latest supply disruption is unfolding against an increasingly fragile backdrop, noting that "the new disruption comes as crude inventories continue to decline globally and SPRs are beginning to hit worrisome levels." In their view, this combination of falling stocks and strained strategic reserves underpins a structurally tighter market and reinforces their higher WTI price profile for the coming years.
Technical Analysis: WTI maintains a constructive outlook above the 100-day SMA
In the daily chart, WTI US Oil trades at $100.05. The near-term bias is bullish as price holds comfortably above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at roughly $85.36 and the 20-day Bollinger middle band around $90.05, indicating firm underlying demand after the recent pullback from the highs. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 69, hinting at strong but increasingly stretched upside momentum as price approaches the upper Bollinger band.
On the topside, immediate resistance appears at the upper Bollinger band near $102.75, and a clear daily close above this barrier would open the way for a continuation of the uptrend. On the downside, initial support is seen at the Bollinger middle band around $90.05, with the 100-day SMA at $85.36 and the lower Bollinger band near $77.36 providing deeper levels where buyers could look to re-emerge if a corrective phase develops.
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