WTI Price Forecast: Prolonged Energy Supply Concerns Remain Key Tailwind

• The Oil price rises to near $82.10 as fears of a prolonged energy supply disruption remain intact.

• Both the US and Iran claim to control the Hormuz Strait.

• OPEC has revised its global oil demand forecast for 2026 to 580,000 bpd.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, trades 0.5% higher at around $82.10 during the European trading session on Thursday. The oil price reflects strength as fears of a prolonged energy supply disruption continue to act as a key tailwind for oil prices.

With the United States (US) and Iran both claiming to have control of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for one-fifth of global energy supply, the traffic through the chokepoint remains low.

According to data from Kpler, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was recorded to just six vessels on August 10, down from a recent 10-day average of about 11. This remains a massive decline from pre-war levels of 130 to 140 ships daily, Reuters reports.

On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump said in a post on Truth Social that the US has "total control" over the Hormuz, describing the American naval presence as a "wall of steel".

Meanwhile, OPEC has revised its global oil demand forecast for the current year to 580,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the prior estimate of 780,000 bpd.

WTI Technical Analysis

The WTI US Oil trades at $82.10, holding a constructive near‑term bias as it trades above the 20‑day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $80.07. The oil price has extended the recovery above the 20-day EMA, which started after completing the 61.8% retracement of the swing from the July 2 low at $67.09 to the July 23 high at $92.25.

The Relative Strength Index (14) at 52.55 sits slightly above neutral, hinting at steady rather than aggressive bullish momentum while price approaches overhead Fibonacci levels.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $82.54, followed by the 23.6% retracement at $86.11, where further gains could start to face profit‑taking. On the downside, immediate support is defined by the 20‑day EMA at $80.07, with stronger structural demand clustered around the 50.0% retracement at $79.65; a break below this area would expose deeper Fibonacci supports at $76.75 and $72.64, while the $67.40 low remains a major bearish target only if the current bullish structure fails decisively.