WTI Price Analysis: Middle East War De-Escalation Restricts Oil Rally Around $103.40

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, is down 0.8% to near $96.60 in the early European trade on Wednesday. The oil price extends its correction from the three-week high of 103.33 posted on Tuesday on hopes of a ceasefire in the Middle East war.

The expectation of peace in the Middle East has intensified, following comments from both the United States (US) and Iran that they are ready to end the war.

According to the Iranian state news agency, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian told European Union (EU) Council President António Costa on Tuesday that his country is ready to end the war with the US, but it needs certain guarantees of no repetitive aggression. This is the first time that Iran has discussed peace in the Middle East and not extending attacks on Gulf nations.

Meanwhile, the oil price retracement could prove to be short-lived as the Strait of Hormuz, a passage to almost 20% of global energy supply, is expected to remain covered under Iran’s military influence.

Earlier in the day, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) expressed willingness to join the US and other allies in the forceful reopening of the Hormuz, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported.

WTI technical analysis

WTI US Oil trades lower at around $96.60 as of writing. However, the near-term bias remains bullish, with price holding well above the rising 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $90.70, which underpins the broader uptrend from the mid-$60s. Recent dips toward the low $90s attracted buyers, preserving a pattern of higher lows and keeping the advance from $84 intact.

The RSI at 61 signals firm positive momentum rather than exhaustion, indicating that buyers retain control despite the recent pullback from the $101.97 peak.

Initial resistance emerges at $100.00, followed by the recent top at $103.41. A sustained break above the latter would open the way toward the mid-$100s and extend the current bullish phase. On the downside, immediate support is seen at $93.00–$94.00, where recent lows cluster above the 20-day EMA and prior consolidation. A deeper setback would expose the dynamic support of the 20-day EMA around $90.70, and a daily close below this area would weaken the bullish bias and point to a broader corrective phase toward the high-$80s.