WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis For June 25

WTI crude oil has staged a sharp breakout to the upside after price busted through the top of a long-standing descending triangle that had been in play since mid-2023.

The commodity surged from the swing low around $68.59 all the way to a peak near $120, before pulling back sharply to retest the broken triangle resistance, which is now expected to flip into support. Price is currently hovering around this key confluence zone where the broken descending trendline meets the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $93.28.

If this area holds as a floor, WTI crude oil could resume the climb to the 50% Fib at $100.91, a psychologically significant level that could draw in more buyers. Further gains from there could target the 61.8% Fib extension at $108.53, then the 76.4% level at $117.97.

A sustained push higher could even have bulls setting their sights on the swing high at $133.23, which aligns with the 100% Fibonacci extension.

The 100 SMA and 200 SMA have recently crossed, with price breaking above both indicators for the first time in years, though the recent pullback has brought price back down to test these moving averages as dynamic support. A firm bounce off this area would reaffirm the bullish bias and suggest that the longer-term uptrend is gaining traction.

Stochastic has plunged deep into the oversold zone, reflecting exhaustion among sellers and raising the odds of a bullish reversal from current levels. The oscillator has very little room left to slide before a crossover to the upside becomes likely.

RSI is also hovering near oversold territory, suggesting that downside momentum is fading. A turn higher in both oscillators from these levels could be the early signal that buyers are ready to take control once more.

WTI crude oil continues to unwind the war premium on the lack of fresh escalations between the US and Iran, suggesting that both are moving closer to a deal that could completely reopen the Strait of Hormuz.