WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis For June 23

WTI crude oil has been in a steady downtrend, carving out lower highs within a descending channel as the 100 SMA remains below the 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the downside.

Both moving averages are also sloping lower and acting as dynamic resistance on any attempted recovery, reinforcing the bearish outlook.

Price has recently found some footing near the $72.90 swing low, which lines up with the 0% Fibonacci retracement level, and has since entered a short-term consolidation phase in the $74.00–$76.00 area. This sideways chop could be the calm before the next directional move, and traders are watching closely for a resolution.

A break below the $72.90 support could confirm a continuation of the longer-term downtrend, potentially opening the door to sharper losses with no immediate technical floor in plain sight.

On the other hand, if buyers manage to push price higher from current levels, the Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the recent swing high to the low offer a roadmap of likely resistance. The 38.2% Fib sits at $80.81, followed by the 50% level at $83.25, and a more substantial recovery could reach the 61.8% Fib at $85.70, all of which intersect with the descending channel lines and sliding moving averages.

Stochastic has bounced from the oversold zone and is ticking higher, suggesting that a short-term corrective bounce could still have some legs. However, the oscillator has turned from overbought readings multiple times throughout this downtrend without producing any meaningful reversal, so bulls should tread carefully.

RSI is also recovering from lower levels but remains below the midpoint, reflecting that sellers still have the upper hand overall. A failure to push higher from here could see the oscillator roll back over, dragging price along with it back toward the lows.

Easing geopolitical tensions from the 60-day peace roadmap of the US and Iran continue to unwind the crude oil war premium as markets no longer seem to be as concerned about global supply risks.