WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis For July 17

WTI crude oil is retreating from its recent swing high around $81.47, pulling back from the peak of a sharp rally that took the commodity from the $70 region in early July to that high in just a couple of weeks.

The pullback is unfolding within a rising trend channel that’s been guiding price higher since the swing low near July 11, and the pair is currently testing the area just above the trend line support.

The Fibonacci retracement tool shows where buyers could step back in to defend the climb. The 38.2% Fib comes in at $77.32, which lines up closely with where price is currently trading, while a deeper correction could reach the 50% level at $76.04.

A more significant pullback could test the 61.8% Fib at $74.76, close to the rising trend line and the earlier ascending triangle breakout point, which could be the line in the sand for the broader uptrend to remain intact.

If any of these levels hold as a floor, WTI crude oil could resume its climb toward a retest of the $81.47 high or higher. A break below the 61.8% Fib and trend line, however, could open the door to a deeper slide back toward the $70.61 level, which marks the base of the entire rally.

The 100 SMA remains above the 200 SMA, confirming that the path of least resistance is still to the upside, even as price has dipped below both moving averages during this pullback, hinting at some short-term weakness.

Stochastic has fallen to the oversold region, reflecting exhaustion among sellers and raising the odds of a bounce. RSI, meanwhile, is easing back toward the midline, still leaving room to slide before reaching oversold territory, so a bit more downside could unfold before buyers regain full control.

Crude oil could continue to take cues from geopolitical developments, as well as tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and other workaround routes, as supply concerns could bring more upside for the commodity price.