WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis For July 13

WTI crude oil broke down from a strong support area, sliding beneath the $66 per barrel major psychological level before staging a modest bounce that has price back around the low $70s.

Even so, this recovery could turn out to be little more than a pullback that hands sellers a better price to reload their positions.

The Fibonacci retracement tool, drawn from the $111.27 swing high to the $65.98 swing low, points to a few levels where resistance could resurface. The 38.2% Fib at $83.28 is the first hurdle for a stronger bounce, while the 50% level at $88.63 sits close to where the breakdown originated.

A more stretched correction could reach the 61.8% Fib at $93.97, which lines up with the broken channel support that’s now flipped into resistance.

On the moving average front, the 100 SMA remains below the 200 SMA, confirming that the broader path of least resistance is still pointed lower. Price is also trading beneath both indicators, so these could act as dynamic ceilings if the pullback extends further, potentially capping gains and reinforcing the bearish bias.

Stochastic has climbed out of oversold territory and is curling higher, showing that buyers are stepping in for now. However, the oscillator still has plenty of room to run before hitting overbought levels, so the bounce may have some legs before sellers look to step back in.

RSI is also ticking higher from the low 30s but remains well below the midline, suggesting bearish momentum hasn’t fully cleared out yet.

If price stalls at any of the Fibonacci levels or the moving averages, WTI crude could resume its slide toward the $65.98 low or lower, especially if broader demand concerns persist. A break and close above the 61.8% Fib, on the other hand, would be needed to suggest a more meaningful shift back in the bulls’ favor.

Geopolitical headlines could continue to drive oil direction, though the war premium appears to be subdued this time around since the commodity has been flowing through a workaround despite the Strait of Hormuz closure.