WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis

WTI crude oil has broken down from a symmetrical triangle pattern that had been forming since early April, with the commodity slicing below the lower boundary around the $94.51 area to confirm a bearish shift in momentum.

Price is currently hovering around $90.27, and a potential retest of the broken triangle floor could be in the works before sellers push the commodity lower.

If the broken support holds as a new ceiling on any bounce, WTI could make its way down to the 38.2% Fibonacci extension level at $88.36 as the first downside target. A sustained break below that could open the doors to the 50% Fib at $86.46 and then the 61.8% extension at $84.55.

Deeper losses could extend to the 76.4% level at $82.20, while a full breakdown could eventually bring the 100% Fibonacci extension at $78.40 into play.

The 100 SMA has crossed below the 200 SMA, confirming that the path of least resistance is to the downside and that the bearish momentum is more likely to gain traction from here. Both indicators are now sloping above price action and could serve as dynamic resistance on any recovery attempts.

Stochastic is turning higher from the oversold region, though, so a short-term bounce or retest of the broken triangle support is possible before sellers reassert control. Still, the oscillator would need to make a more sustained push before suggesting a full trend reversal.

RSI, on the other hand, is still trending lower and hasn’t quite reached oversold territory yet, leaving room for price to keep heading south while sellers remain in charge. A drop to the oversold zone on RSI could coincide with a more meaningful floor forming around the deeper Fibonacci targets.

Progress in US-Iran peace deal negotiations appear to be weighing on the commodity heavily, as traders are looking ahead to the possibility of the Strait of Hormuz reopening and easing global supply issues.