William Blair Sees 22% Upside In Netflix Shares By End Of 2019

William Blair analyst Ralph Schackart says his content analysis solidifies his view that Netflix's (NFLX) competitive advantage with original programming is expanding at an increasing rate. At a subscription price of $9-$16 per month, the average household receives "outsized value" on a Netflix subscription relative to competing offerings/channels, Schackart tells investors in a research note.

Further, the analyst sees little impact on Netflix's global growth resulting directly from over-the-top competition, including Disney's (DIS) forthcoming stand-alone OTT product. His model suggests Netflix could be self-funded, meaning it won't need debt to finance content spend, as soon as early 2025. Schackart assumes Netflix has 302.7M total subscribers and earnings per share of $24.65 in 2025. He thinks the shares have an upside of about 22% by the end of 2019 and keeps an Outperform rating on the name.