Will Stagflation Kill The Secular Bull Market In Stocks?

Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have pushed oil prices back into the spotlight, raising an important question for investors: could a renewed surge in energy prices trigger a stagflationary environment that threatens the secular bull market in stocks?

In this week’s video, we examine the relationship between oil prices, inflation pressures, and stock market performance across multiple decades of market history. Using several long-term charts, we look at how similar macro conditions have influenced markets in the past and what those historical analogs might tell us about the current environment.

We also analyze how stocks have behaved relative to oil, how major turning points in energy markets have aligned with shifts in equity leadership, and what the data may imply about the ongoing debate between secular bull market continuation versus a potential period of secular stagnation.

Finally, we review several indicators from our models that track long-term market regimes, volatility trends, and the balance between risk assets and commodities.

The goal is not to predict headlines—but to focus on evidence, probabilities, and historical context as investors navigate an environment shaped by geopolitics, inflation concerns, and shifting market leadership.

Video Length: 00:42:19

Charts discussed include:
• Oil vs. Stocks long-term trends
• Historical oil price shocks and inflation regimes
• Secular volatility signals for the S&P 500