Why Weaker Jobs Report Has Semis On The Rise

For the last few weeks, I’ve explicitly referenced the semicondutor sector as a solid Big Money Footprints hunting ground.

Multiple confluences of positive OVI, bullish Trend Fades, and much of the sector clustering conveniently on the important Key Levels.

After a quiet week leading up to Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls – a softer than expected jobs report finally gave the market something to get excited about, and semis started to get movement.

Market Outlook:

A weaker jobs report has investors less fearful of more hawkish interest rate rises, hence Friday’s pop.

The question is, can that be sustained?

Looking at our rather good Market Timers, it’s a mixed picture out there. Tech has done all the heavy lifting recently, literally preventing the SPY from a drop similar to that of the DIA and IWM – and we called the IWM drop beautifully all the way down to its 200-dma (a >100% move with deep ITM puts by the way).

So, much will depend on tech. I think the aerospace sector looks oversold and slowing its bleed, meaning it should recover with more conviction than housing related sectors, which will remain fragile even if they bounce off the back of Friday’s report.

If you look in our Telegram groups you’ll see I posted a video about the potential looming AI Bubble, which you should watch. It’s only 7-minutes, but explains some of the fears that are circulating about that sector, and which stocks are most affected.

Our market commentary continues to be outstanding. Mastering market timing enables you to swim WITH the tide at the right time.

Watch the video for more detail.

Market Timers:

• Longer Term Market Timer (OVIsi):
  Half green.

• Medium Term Swing Timer:
  Neutral.

• The Main Indices OVIs:
  All but the SPY’s OVI bouncing into positive territory on Friday, but that’s not enough information to go on.

Stock Selection:

Many of the same stocks appeared in my searches this week because it had been a quiet week until Friday.

This new ‘Recent Price Acceleration’ filter is going to be a favourite when it’s release, with great combos showing up with flags, Trend Fades … and OVI Spike when it arrives.