Gianni Di Poce flagged the quietest setup on the board. The Nasdaq trades at the same price it held four months ago.
Four months of movement produced nothing. The Bollinger Bands have squeezed tighter than they were at the March bottom.
That earlier base ran six months before the index finally broke out. Gianni learned it as the bigger the base, the higher the space.
He expects the resolution to be meaningful in either direction. His bias points higher because the longer term trend never broke.
The Nasdaq has not printed a lower low. Gianni argues today’s dip carved out another higher low instead.
Today’s tape handed him more evidence. Explosions tied to Iran hit the wires. Stocks barely flinched.
The S&P 500 fell less than half a percent. The Dow dropped over 1%. The Nasdaq stayed green.
Semiconductors climbed 1.5% on the session. AMD ran 6%. Money took risk on a headline day.
NVIDIA (NVDA) slipped a couple of percent. It closed Friday at the highest weekly level in its history on a volume spike.
Gianni waves off the pullback because the selling carried no real volume behind it.
The calendar does the rest of the work this week. The Treasury doubles its buyback program starting tomorrow.
That program pushes liquidity into the long end of the bond market. The 30 year contract has not made a new low since mid August.
Friday’s inflation report all but decides the Fed meeting on September 16. A hike currently holds a slight edge.
Gianni dismisses the idea that rising rates automatically sink stocks. Credit spreads and liquidity decide that outcome, not the direction of yields.
Here is what Gianni broke down in tonight’s video:
The Nasdaq sits at the same level it traded four months ago. Bollinger Bands are narrower than they were before the March breakout, and Gianni expects the resolution to be a large move.
NVIDIA closed at its highest weekly level in history on Friday. Today’s dip came on light volume, and Gianni sees a breakout on the verge.
Semiconductors gained 1.5% while the S&P 500 fell and the Dow lost over 1%. AMD tacked on 6% in a single session.
Friday’s inflation report seals the September 16 Fed decision. Gianni expects precious metals to rip big if the Fed stands pat on rates.
The Treasury doubles its buyback program starting tomorrow. Gianni watches the 30 year bond for a short squeeze that would flatten the curve and warn of recession in 2028.
Crude is the one chart giving him pause. Oil spiked into the 90 to 95 zone with a volume surge and bearish divergence, which often marks a false breakout.
Oracle (ORCL) reports later this week. Gianni calls it consequential for the AI trade after credit default swaps on several tech names widened.
The Bank of Japan keeps selling treasuries to defend the yen. The carry trade has unwound roughly 10 points in six weeks without breaking anything, which buys this market more time.
Gianni sums up his stance in four words. Don’t fight the Treasury.
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