Healthcare employers need to plan administrative hiring before every staffing need becomes clear. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projects employment for medical secretaries and administrative assistants to grow from about 850,000 jobs in 2024 to 885,300 by 2034. That equals 4% growth over the period. The outlook is stronger than it is for several other office support roles. The BLS employment outlook for medical administrative roles shows why healthcare employers may continue to face demand for workers with medical office skills.
Federal rules are also changing some administrative workflows. CMS has set prior authorization requirements that include several API provisions starting January 1, 2027. The CMS Interoperability and Prior Authorization Final Rule affects how certain payers exchange prior authorization information. Healthcare employers must decide how much staff capacity they'll need as these changes take effect.
One forecast can't answer that question for every organization. A better approach is to examine several possible conditions and prepare a response for each one.
The base case points to steady demand for medical office skills
The base case assumes patient volumes keep growing at a moderate pace. It also assumes federal rules stay on schedule and healthcare organizations continue using a mix of manual work and digital systems. Under these conditions, demand should remain steady for scheduling, billing, records management, authorization support, and patient coordination.
BLS projects medical secretary employment to increase by about 35,300 positions from 2024 to 2034. This doesn't mean every employer will add staff at the same rate. Local patient demand, turnover, service lines, and internal systems will affect each organization's hiring needs. The national projection still gives employers a useful baseline for workforce planning.
The first warning sign is often repeated vacancy pressure. A healthcare organization may reopen the same position several times, depend more heavily on overtime, or shift office duties to clinical workers. Those patterns can show that staffing capacity isn't keeping pace with the work.
A Healthcare Administrative Support Staffing plan can help employers build a candidate pipeline before open positions start affecting daily operations. The hiring decision should still be tied to actual workload. Managers should identify which tasks slow down when each position stays vacant.
The stronger case begins when healthcare growth adds more administrative work
Demand could rise faster if an organization adds locations, specialties, payer contracts, or digital systems. Higher patient volume can also increase the amount of scheduling, billing, records work, and authorization activity. In this case, staffing pressure may appear before leaders see a major change in total headcount.
BLS projects employment for medical and health services managers to grow 23% from 2024 through 2034. It also expects about 62,100 openings each year on average during that period. The BLS outlook for medical and health services managers reflects growing demand for people who can manage healthcare operations.
Medical records work provides another signal. BLS projects employment for medical records specialists to grow 8% from 2025 through 2035, with about 14,000 openings each year. The BLS medical records specialist outlook suggests that healthcare employers may need workers who understand both medical processes and digital records systems.
A Healthcare Administrative Staffing Agency can become useful when hiring volume grows faster than an internal recruiting team can manage. The main trigger is repeated hiring pressure across several roles. Managers should also watch for longer vacancies and weaker candidate screening caused by pressure to fill jobs quickly.
The adverse case appears when workload grows faster than headcount
The harder scenario occurs when administrative work increases while staffing stays flat. Prior authorization shows how this can happen. A 2026 American Medical Association survey reported that physicians and their staff handled an average of 40 prior authorizations each week. The survey also found that this work took about 13 hours per week.
The AMA 2026 prior authorization survey doesn't prove that every healthcare organization needs more administrative employees. It does show how paperwork can consume staff time. A vacancy can become more serious when the remaining work moves to nurses, physicians, or other employees.
An unfilled Healthcare Administrative Assistant position may affect scheduling, authorization follow-up, records handling, and patient communication. Managers should watch for longer queues, missed follow-ups, repeated handoffs, and growing administrative work among clinical teams.
These signs should lead to a workload review before another full-time position is approved. The cause may be a staffing shortage. It may also be a poor process or a system that creates duplicate work. The response should match the source of the delay.
The 2027 rules may change which administrative skills matter most
Technology may remove some manual tasks while raising demand for staff who can work across digital systems. CMS requires affected payers to meet several prior authorization API requirements beginning January 1, 2027. Other parts of the rule took effect earlier.
These changes affect how authorization information moves between systems. They can also change how staff track requests, review responses, and handle missing information. Employers may therefore need to review job descriptions before adding headcount.
ASTP/ONC has also issued certification requirements related to electronic prior authorization and health information exchange. The ASTP/ONC HTI-4 final rule gives healthcare organizations another reason to examine the digital skills required for administrative work.
When Hiring Healthcare Administrative Staff, employers should test the skills the role actually requires. Experience with EHR platforms, payer portals, records systems, or authorization workflows may matter more than general office experience for some positions.
Hiring capacity should follow real workload signals
Scenario planning works best when each case has a clear trigger. The base case may call for replacement hiring and a steady candidate pipeline. A stronger demand case may require recruiting to begin earlier as patient volume or service lines grow. An adverse case may require temporary staff while leaders determine whether the workload increase will last.
VALiNTRY's healthcare administrative staffing page covers direct-hire, temp-to-hire, and temporary staffing options. That makes Medical Administrative Support Staffing relevant when employers need to match staffing type with the expected length of demand.
Privacy should remain part of that decision. HHS states that covered healthcare organizations must train workforce members on relevant privacy procedures and protect patient information from people who don't need access. The HHS guidance on HIPAA workforce responsibilities explains these duties.
Faster hiring shouldn't remove proper screening or onboarding. Administrative employees may handle records, insurance details, appointment information, or other sensitive data. Employers need enough time to confirm skills and provide role-specific privacy training.
Administrative workload per patient is the first indicator to watch
Healthcare leaders should watch administrative workload in relation to patient activity. Headcount by itself can hide changes in the amount of work each employee must complete. A new system may reduce one task while new payer rules increase another.
Useful measures include authorization volume, scheduling backlogs, records queues, vacancy duration, and the amount of office work handled by clinical employees. Employers using Healthcare Administrative Support Staffing can review these measures before each hiring cycle.
A rising backlog with stable patient volume can point to a process problem. Rising patient activity combined with growing queues may point to a capacity shortage. That difference matters because the response won't be the same in both cases.
The first indicator to monitor is workload per patient or encounter. It can show pressure before missed deadlines or employee turnover makes the staffing problem harder to fix.
Frequently asked questions
Will healthcare administrative hiring grow over the next decade?
Federal projections show growth in several healthcare administrative roles. Medical secretary employment is projected to rise 4% from 2024 to 2034. Medical and health services manager employment is projected to rise much faster. These figures describe national demand, so each employer still needs to review local conditions and its own workload.
Which healthcare administrative roles may face stronger demand?
Demand differs by role. Medical records specialists are projected to see 8% employment growth from 2025 through 2035. Medical and health services managers also have strong projected growth. Employers should compare these national figures with their patient volume, vacancy rates, and service plans before setting hiring targets.
Can automation reduce the need for administrative employees?
Automation can reduce some repetitive office tasks. It may still leave staff responsible for exceptions, patient communication, record accuracy, payer requirements, and work that crosses several systems. Employers should study the tasks inside each job before reducing or adding positions. The effect of automation won't be equal across every administrative role.
When should a healthcare organization use outside staffing support?
Outside staffing support may make sense when vacancies stay open for too long or internal recruiters can't handle the number of roles. It can also help when short-term demand rises above normal staffing levels. The decision should start with workload pressure and vacancy duration. Employers should also consider how much medical knowledge or system experience each position requires.
What should healthcare leaders monitor first?
Administrative workload per patient or encounter is a useful starting point. It connects staffing pressure to actual service activity. Rising queues with stable patient volume may point to a process issue. Rising queues alongside higher patient activity may show that the organization needs more capacity.
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