Who Will Win The Third Iraq War?

In a strange turn of events, Iraq is asking the United States to bomb it.

For those of you who haven’t been following the news, a huge power struggle is occurring in Iraq right now, between Islamist insurgents and the Iraqi government. This conflict is actually nothing new, as the divide between the two Islamist branches has been going on for centuries. And since the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, the country has been the perfect breeding ground for another war between the opposing Sunnis and Shias.

For centuries, Iraq has maintained a minority Sunni-led government, from the Ottoman Empire until Saddam Hussein was removed. Finally, the Shia-dominated population was given a Shia-led government under Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who failed to find a power balance between the two groups. Sunni insurgents from Syria, taking advantage of a feeble Iraqi army, have launched their offensive, and Iraq has asked the United States for help, calling for airstrikes to stop the offensive.

The militant group Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) started by overtaking many of Iraq’s northern and western cities, and most recently Mosul. Mosul is in Iraqi Kurdistan, an autonomous region officially established by Iraq’s new constitution in 2005, though both Iraqis and Kurds claim oil-rich parts near Mosul and Kirkuk. ISIS has brought the Kurds into the mix, and you can be sure the Kurds will not go down easily. They’ve been fighting for their lives throughout their history and won’t just give up something previous generations have died for.

I have been to Kurdistan and know firsthand the strategic importance of the area due to its rich oil deposits and close proximity to Iran, Turkey, and Syria.

A picture I took of the oil seeps.

ISIS already controls the largest oil refinery in Baiji; and not surprisingly, Brent oil prices have risen on Iraqi production worries. The handful of oil companies that have production sharing contracts (PSCs) with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) have taken significant hits in share prices since the beginning of the year.

Investors get scared when something like this happens; just look at Russian stocks when Putin invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea. But Russian stocks have since rebounded, and investors who capitalized on the swing became that much richer.

It is still up in the air what will happen in Iraq and who will “win” this conflict. As ISIS gains more momentum and gets closer to Baghdad, the United States may very well launch an offensive to pick up where it left off. And let’s not forget that ExxonMobil, which has chosen to work with the Kurds now, has great lobbying power in Washington. ExxonMobil has a history of using politicians to protect its international assets, and ISIS may push the oil giant to do something. I don’t know if it will be ISIS, Iraq, or the Kurds who comes out on top, but I do know that investors can profit from this crisis.

I know Kurdistan very well—I have personally met with every company operating in the region and even donned a bulletproof vest with Doug Casey to inspect the drill sites. If there’s an opportunity in Kurdistan, I know what it is.

Traveling on Your Behalf

As much as my body hates it, I travel a lot, and my most recent site tour ended with a recommendation that gave my investors a 70% gain within 60 days, as I mentioned in my last Dispatch.

As I like to say, “In the room, in the deal”—that means if you want to be part of the deal, you better go where that “room” is, even if it’s on the other side of the globe. I’ll be on the road again for the next two weeks, to check out some more drill sites and to meet with more management teams. My findings and research are conveniently packaged in the Casey Energy Report, which I’m offering risk-free for 3 months.

Test-drive my newsletter for the next 3 months, and if you’re not 100% satisfied—for whatever reason—simply cancel for a full refund, no questions asked. Even if you miss the 3-month deadline, you can cancel at any time and get a prorated refund of the remainder of your subscription. Click here to get started.

Let me wear the bulletproof vests; all you need to do is invest.