Where’s The Inflation?

Well, the inflation is going on globally 24/7, but it is the manifestations or effects of it that 99% of people care about.  I’ll tell you what I care about.  I care about the cost of my heating oil going down for one thing.  And for another, I don’t much care about the price of the gold I may or may not have   .  So all things being equal, I’ll take declining prices for $1000, Alex.

The TIP-TLT inflation gauge has bounced a little in line with Treasury yields, and if it were to break the downtrend line recent trends in other inflation sensitive items might get a bid.  But as of this moment, TIP-TLT is in a downtrend and thus, so remains the entire ‘inflation trade’.  It’s not just gold, guys… are they manipulating oil, grains, uranium, REE’s, coal, platinum and now palladium and base metals too?

I just bought some T bonds after yields ramped over the last couple of weeks with the idea that recent trends will hold and inflation will remain muted for a while.  My personal investment stance has little to do with inflation hysterics.  And that includes my interest in the gold mining sector, which is not for inflationary reasons but is also currently compromised by incomplete fundamentals, especially in the drubbing gold is taking in ratio to the stock market.

If TIP-TLT breaks trend and starts to rise, then we can talk ‘inflation trade’.