Whatever Happened To Optimism ?

It's been years since I've been in a classroom,but Labor Day always reminds me of the first day of school and the giddy youthful optimism that accompanied it. The ritual of methodically preparing for the event because everything had to be perfect.  Breaking in that squeaky pair of leather loafers, a shiny fresh pencil box, a new Shaeffer fountain pen. Agonizing over what to wear that first day. You only had one shot. Blow it and you'd pay for it the rest of the year. 

Today the stock market is my "classroom" where for the past 27 years I have been paying tuition, learning and unlearning some very valuable lessons. Like learning that what the market is saying far outweighs the gurus, the gods, the pundits, the media, the bloggers. And in the 27 years I have been a student of the market, I have never seen so little optimism as right now. This could well be the most hated market I have ever seen. If you want to really get noticed today, just try saying something nice about it. You'll be written off as a clueless permabull who flunked out of chart school.

This is a market where any good news is either questioned or ignored. It's like it's already a forgone conclusion that there can't be anything good or positive to celebrate. The zeitgeist is to be zero happy. If there was a pure "negativity" index and the VIX, which is a measurement of PUT CALL activity, was at 40 (very high or bearish), the negativity index would be around 80!

But being the unapologetic contrarian that I am, I say bah to the naysayers and the dark embracers of doom. My DNA predestined me to a much more optimistic outlook on life. Given the choice, I will always err on the side of the sunny. So without further ado, I hereby present you with what I was able to find right now that should make all of the pessimists out there a little less paranoid about the future.

Think about this: 2013 was one of the best years ever for the S&P 500, up nearly 30%. 

This week, Q2 GDP was revised up to 3.7%. That was the third-best quarter for GDP since the start of 2012. 

The August 26th durable-goods report was quite strong. Orders for durable goods rose 2% last month, and that comes after a 4.1% increase for June. 

The week of August 23rd, the Census Bureau said that new-homes sales for July rose 25.8% over last year. And given the good earnings numbers Home Depot (HD) just reported, no one at Home Depot's corporate offices is crying the blues.

Initial unemployment claims came in at 271,000, the  27th straight week under 300k. We haven't seen anything like that since January of 1973. 

Second quarter GDP came in at 3.7%. There have been only 5 stronger quarters going back to 2010. That should throw a little cold water into the faces of the Armageddon 2.0 crowd. 

Watch the VIX  > 20. Will this breakout hold and will resistance become support? If so, dust off your rally hats.

To be fair, there is a bit of confusion regarding supporting indicators for both bulls & bears. And this tug of war is translating to "price". The battle lines are drawn. And I guess you know which way I am leaning.

Overall the strong dollar I see as a net positive, as are the current crop of strong stocks. Bonds are crowded. But best of all, the longer-term bull market trend lines are holding.

And if things are so dire, why have funds seen record inflows for four months in a row? Why indeed.

The economy is improving, yet overall sentiment is flashing extremely skeptical warning signs. I follow sentiment closely. The bulls at Investors Intelligence just came in at a fresh new five-year low.This is actually a contrary indicator. When pessimism is at a low, we sometimes see a bullish reaction. This is what the market calls "climbing a wall of worry". It seems illogical but sometimes the market behaves illogically. As a contrarian, I love it.

Bloggers and financial writers are right now tripping over themselves to find the most frightening words to import into their headlines. They all seem to have attended the same workshop: "Grabbing the Attention of the Reader in Under 32 Seconds By Scaring the Bejesus Out of Him". You know the drill: Words like crash, alarming,1929, death, and doom are all very popular. And of course that old standby, and my personal favorite, "Buffet warns"! 

Given that model, I will assume absolutely no one will read this article.

Then again,considering the prevailing net negativity of today, in "optimism" I just may have picked the most terrifying word of all.